Persian Puzzle
Intrigue in the Middle East
Will Israel attack Iran's nuclear weapons facilities?
In light of the Iranian standoff and the Iranians not budging, will Israel take matters into their own hands?
1. Precedent - Osirik and Syria: However, those two cases were isolated facilities. Iran's nuclear weapons program is distributed widely throughout the country and Iran is rather big. Practically speaking, Israel's capability is not sufficient enough to destroy it all. They can however, destroy a good portion of it and depending on the success, set it back 2-10 years.
2. Logistics - Israel would have to fly over a long expanse to get to Iran. Either over Jordan, Syria, Iraq, or via Turkey. None of these countries would be happy with that. I can't imagine them getting flyover permission. They have been exercising and practicing refueling so who knows they might be able to pull it off.
Then they still have to get by the anti-aircraft batteries (thanks to the Russians) dotting the Iranian landscape. The Iranian Air Force shouldn't be too much trouble, but all taken together, it won't be a cakewalk. Israel is more vulnerable than people think.
3. US assistance - Presumably, Israel would have to obtain the blessing or tacit approval of the US (non-declared, non-public) for this operation. Given that Obama could be elected, then Israel may try to do this before that happens.
4. Backlash - Political fallout and public opinion. This would be disastrous for Israel. But they got to do what they got to do I suppose. Hopefully we will continue our support even if Obama is elected.
Last ditch: Maybe Iran comes back to the table and cease their nuclear weapons program.
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