Quote:
Originally Posted by roachboy
the question of viability in late july-early august is kinda interesting--i would think that launching this ad campaign now is a de facto act of desperation--this because one would expect post-nomination bounces for both candidates as a function of the saturation coverage each convention will get---so the conclusion is that the campaign handlers must feel as though they have to act now in order to preserve the possibility of this bounce.
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I agree about the desperation. The risk is that it makes Obama the centre of attention and moves McCain even further into the background when the guy's already got a charisma problem. The handlers may also be worried that coverage of the conventions will be less than in the past.
I just went through a wide swath of rural Wisconsin today. Not a single McCain yard sign. No bumper stickers. On the other hand, in '04, there was plenty of W crap. This struck me as i was going through a little red neck burg and seeing only Obama signs. Polls are one thing, but getting the organisation moving & the party behind you is another. This type of active support is not coming together for McCain. I get the impression that his organisation is on its ass.
This is a state that malevolent incompetence incarnate made very close in '00 and '04. There are enough Main St. Republicans, backwoods red necks, right-wing Catholics, kooky new Christians, rich farmers, and paranoid-xenophobic types in deindustrialised/deindustrialising towns like Racine, Kenosha, & Janesville to keep things interesting. And yet McCain isn't getting much traction. I think he's doing especially poorly with the Main St. types.
Anyway, if McCain can't do as well as Bush did here, I don't give him much of a chance.