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Originally Posted by aceventura3
I agree that we probably can not duplicate 1950-2000 in terms of production. However, I don't think demand for oil will duplicate that period either. As the US industrialized it was at a unique time in history. I think China, India and other countries can industrialize without the same thirst that the US had for oil. For example in the US, with the introduction of the telephone, it required phone lines to be placed to every location where there was a phone. Today, with cell phone technology one strategically place (whatever they are called) can serve thousands of phones. Every industry can point to these kinds of efficiencies.
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Some excellent points here. I find it interesting that Japan has actually reduced its need for oil over the past 30 years despite being the second largest economy in the world. That's efficiency for you. It will be intersting to watch others such as France and Germany in this respect as well.
We will likely see the same with virtually every other developed nation over the next while, but this will be offset somewhat by developing nations that will have a high demand for oil not only for fuel but also for construction and manufacturing, etc. They will possibly be more efficient than post-1950s America, but also remember the collective population of these developing nations (which include others besides China and India) is far greater. This is why oil should remain relatively high.
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Perhaps close to $50 or $60 per barrel.
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I don't believe we'll see $80 in the foreseeable future, barring some major unpredictable event.