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Originally Posted by Baraka_Guru
Interesting data, nonetheless. But have a look at this to help illustrate what I mean:
Projections aside, have a look at what happened between 1950 and 2000, and then ask yourself if you think this is repeatable in anywhere near the same capacity between 2010 and 2060. Even if demand for oil doesn't grow at the same rate it did between 1950 and today, we can still assume there is much growth to occur in largely populated developing nations as they modernize. |
I agree that we probably can not duplicate 1950-2000 in terms of production. However, I don't think demand for oil will duplicate that period either. As the US industrialized it was at a unique time in history. I think China, India and other countries can industrialize without the same thirst that the US had for oil. For example in the US, with the introduction of the telephone, it required phone lines to be placed to every location where there was a phone. Today, with cell phone technology one strategically place (whatever they are called) can serve thousands of phones. Every industry can point to these kinds of efficiencies.
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To help me understand your perspective on this, if the other factors would be resolved, what do you think the "true" price of oil is? What is the lowest it could be, and what do you see happening to that price between now and, say, 2050?
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Perhaps close to $50 or $60 per barrel.