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Putting the issue of regulation aside for now, although the increase in demand is fairly predictable, the future ability to fill it isn't so much. For starters, we aren't even sure how accurate the numbers are on Saudi Arabia's reserves. We are also beginning to question the ability of other nations to maintain their current level of production. Also consider unpredictable things such as conflicts and natural disasters. Those are the unpredictable factors. And regardless of these, demand will chug ahead, as predictable as always. When asking why oil prices went up so fast in just 12 months, consider the value of the US dollar, which is how oil is priced. Also consider the recent reports that certain nations have faced dwindling production capacity. This is mainly volatility, but as time marches on, we will see the average price remain high, even after the volatility settle down (if it ever does).
Generally, on this issue, one big reason the prices are high is because the increases in demand are outstripping increases in production. The first is relatively predictable, the second isn't.
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Knowing that death is certain and that the time of death is uncertain, what's the most important thing?
—Bhikkhuni Pema Chödrön
Humankind cannot bear very much reality.
—From "Burnt Norton," Four Quartets (1936), T. S. Eliot
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