Quote:
Originally Posted by aceventura3
Personally, I simply want cheap oil and I think it is possible to have cheap oil. I have no interest in riding a bike, mass transit, using a golf cart or driving 55 mph on the interstate. If others want those things, that is o.k. with me. And if the people who want those things, just did them wouldn't we all be happy?
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But, relatively speaking, oil
is cheap. I understand that you want
cheaper oil, but how cheap can you go given all the variables? We cannot repeat what we did in the second half of the 20th century to increase capacity. How do you think the world economy will change over the next 40 years?
Seriously: I think oil is as cheap as it's getting for at least the next 10 or 15 years before supply can catch up again, and this will only happen when alternatives kick in and demand moves to meet it half way (figuratively speaking). I could see it maybe dropping as far as $100/barrel in the near future, but that may only be a result of volatility. There is a lot of investment in oil right now, so you'll see many things come out of the industry to help production, refinement, and new sources, but this growth of output will be slow compared to the growth of short-term demand. We cannot indefinitely expand capacity. There is only one Saudi Arabia and only one Athabasca Oil Sands. We might get lucky in some of the sea beds around the world, but I wouldn't bet on it.