It is too early to tell. Also, the polls are quite skewed depending on where you see them. Fox News has about a 2 point lead for Obama while MSNBC has about a 6 point lead.
There are many people discussing how the lead should be more, but again it's early. I think Obama has a lot against him that the conservative media is making into issues, even if they're non-issues (Muslim link, American flag pin, fist bumps, etc.). This is making republicans who don't like McCain stick with him anyway because they're scared of having Obama in office...I mean he is black, ya know.
I'm an Obama supporter. The thought of McCain winning makes me sad. This country needs a change and McCain is just going to bring more of the same. With Obama, we'll have some civil rights and hopefully get back on track with the constitutional rights. I'm not sure how people can't see that McCain is very similar to Bush. The only plus side of having McCain win is that the Bushism people would have job security for McCainisms.
My answer: The election will be close. I'm getting excited to watch it unfold after the conventions.