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Originally Posted by dc_dux
I can see how Obama can win w/o either OH or FL...by winning three out of four states that barely went for Bush in '04 - CO, IA, MO, NM - and holding all the Dem states in 04.
And if he can pick up OH (FL is less likely)....that puts him over 300....a significant win, if not a landslide.
But if he cant hold PA or MI...it might be alot closer.
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It took a campaigner as poor as Kerry to blow Iowa in 2004. What a loser that guy was. Iowa is part of Obama's geographical base, and so is Missouri. I think Obama should do better than Kerry. Then again, that's not saying much.
As for Michigan, have you been there lately? It's even more depressed than ever. Outside of the Dutch Reform Coast/Rich Chicago People Resort Country, McCain will find it mighty tough sledding. He's going to have trouble motivating voters to come out and vote for staying the Bush course. On the other hand, i think people will be even more motivated to vote Dem. in Wayne Co., Flint, St-Joe/Benton Harbor... I can't see McCain doing any better than Bush did in '04.