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I gotta tell you........ I remember reading some European commentary during November and December 2000, and they were pretty much scratching their heads about how the system worked. To begin with, the electoral college system is pretty damn complicated. Plus, to your average European, the idea that the local yokel supervisor in Palm Beach county gets to decide a presidential election is batty beyond belief. Even having the Florida Supreme Court do it struck them as crazy.
Now to a large degree that's a reflection merely of their own provincial views and lack of understanding of American federalism. But step back a second and think: people like me are effectively ignored in the election because we live in a state where there is not a shadow of a doubt which way it will go (I live in NY, and Obama will win in a landslide here). So I have the luxury of voting for a third party candidate (as I did in 2000) because I know my vote makes no difference.
So when people ask whether it will be close....... well, close by what measure? The only one that matters is the electoral vote. The campaign is distorted because of the electoral college. I happen to think that's not necessarily a bad thing, but talking about a close campaign has a bit of an unreal air to it. We don't have one election for president - we have 51 elections for president, and they get aggregated. So which of the 51 will be close?
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