McCain will win because the evangicals and others will see him as the one to further their values. They will understand that he is the most qualified and that he is not a Bush clone. People may want change, but not too fast or in the wrong direction.
Obama will lose because people will realize that while he is a very good speaker, he has no substance. He has too many skeletons in his closet.
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Back button again, I must be getting old.
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