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Originally Posted by Baraka_Guru
This chart shows just one picture of a multidimensional problem. Do you realize how many oil wells have been tapped since the '70s? Do you think that can be done again between now and 2040? The world is only so big....
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That would not be necessary. For example, look at what Brazil has been doing with bio-fuels, dino oil alternatives can be viable. In Brazil they are using sugar cane which is much more efficient than our approach of using corn. Also oil exploration and drilling is simply more effecient now than 30 years ago. Each individual well can be much more productive today than in the past.
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Here's a little research project. Have a look into the portfolios of some of the most successful investors in the world. I'm talking about the ones who invest $millions, if not $billions, at a time in the tradition of Warren Buffett. They aren't speculators, they're investors--they invest for the long term. Look at how many of them are in oil. They understand how businesses work and how they are valued, and they understand supply and demand. These are the same guys who wouldn't touch high-tech in the '90s before that bubble burst (Buffett included), even though they were losing clients left and right as they were getting their ears chewed off and were being called idiots. These clients left them because they thought they were losing out on $millions in gains, but look who got the last laugh: These guys were making money while the markets were losing.
These same guys are in oil, and they are in it as huge chunks of multi-million dollar portfolios. That and precious metals, which is another story when it comes to supply, demand, and expanding economies. They know a good thing when they see it.
Look forward to $200 a barrel.
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At some point oil will hit $200 in nominal terms, but a loaf of bread may cost $25. Everything is relative.
One reason billionaires may be avoiding investments in oil companies is because of people like Chavez in Venezuela (stealing oil company assets) or even the Democrats in Washington who want to penalize oil companies through wind-fall profit taxes and excessive regulation.