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My feeling is that the short-term fluctuations in price do indeed reflect these sorts of temporary geopolitical murmurs - like increased tension between Israel and Iran. But these quick price moves are just the foam on top of a rising tide with altogether different causes.
On the Hersh piece: very interesting, although also not that surprising. StratFor had a bit of a unique take on it; they claimed that the administration deliberately leaked this information through Hersh (someone whom they knew would be credible) as a way of putting pressure on Tehran without the overt appearance of saber rattling. This in contrast to Rice's recent flirting with the idea of exchanging diplomatic personnel (though not embassies) with Iran could be a kind of good cop/bad cop or stick/carrot routine.
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