Originally Posted by roachboy

you know, pan, i don't think you're right. i think you underestimate significantly the level of alienation from the bush administration and the extent to which the republicans are going to take the hit for that in november. i doubt very seriously that moderates are going to vote for someone who promises to carry on the vast majority of the anything-but-moderate policies of the bush administration. i think the alienated clinton supporters who may vote mccain are a myth as well, for the most part. i'm sure there are 2 or 3 out there.

what i do see in your prognosis is the assumption that obama will be understood as some kind of leftist. i find that characterization to be surreal, but hey folk can be persuaded of anything if you repeat it long enough i guess and the right has shown that it has the wherewithal to repeat lots of surreal stuff ad infinitum if need be. but i don't see it as having much traction--i think your trajectory is particular, something that you are moving through that represents yourself.

but all the above is based on my sense of things, which is to some extent a function of the contexts i've been moving through--bigger cities for a long time, now a very old-school democrat eastern massachusetts town.

so what i don't know is the extent to which your trajectory is similar to that of folk around you in ohio.
do you find that it is more typical there?
if it is, how would you talk about that, say, sociologically? like amongst which groups you have contact with do you see this kind of movement?
and if you could step outside your own preferences (and not if you can't) why do you think it's happening---this is different from asking you for your own reasons for your own shifts in position, so try (if you can--it's not obvious how to do this in some cases) to be more a reporter than a source, please.

i'm just curious.