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Seems *very* unlikely to me.
First, the most eggregious right-wing policies of Bush that McCain is subscribing to are *exactly* what the neocon powers that be in the republican party want. Only they want more of them. Bush was literally too liberal for these people. So if they get to pick someone else, they will want someone to the Right of McCain. As far as I can tell, one of the few reasons that McCain is polling so high is that he's billed as a 'Maverick'. He isn't really (at least not 2008 McCain); his policies and rhetoric lately have all been very standard neocon stuff. But perception matters.
He could still bow out for health reasons, but I suspect it would be actual legitimate reasons, not some vast right-wing conspiracy.
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