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dlish · 05-30-2008, 02:10 AM

you know, i just came home and intended on laying by the pool, bask in the summer sun and have a nice afternoon, but ive decided that this thread needs me more than i need a tan.

sure, i could make the odd comment and not really get involved in this converstion as i have before. previously i tended not to get too inolved in the PF due to many reasons. there have been many a times that ive wanted to write but held back. sometimes i regreted this decision, other times i havent.

this time ill be contributing more than just my usual sarcasm and sneers.

although i agree with some of what UKing has said concerning the ME as an up and coming power, id disagree on the point of iran.

in my opinion, iran can only become so powerful. it has limitations as a powerful nation chiefly due to the fact that iranians are not arabs. they dont speak arabic, they are not of arabic lineage, they may share some customs and traditions, but generally they are considered as much as an arab as say turkey or armenia. it will remain and always be persian.

because of this limitation, it will lack support from other fellow ME nations apart from maybe iraq.

limitation number 2 is the fact that it is a shiite muslim majority country and will never see eye to eye on theology with sunni arab countries as well as other sunni muslim countries the world over. this is a very important aspect of the relationship between sunnis and shiites. theology plays a big part.

The arabs of the ME are primarily sunnis, and the shiite population makes up about 10-15% of the worlds muslim population. the only two shiite majority countries are iran and iraq. the only loose cannon being iran. even though there is a large shiite majority in iraq, i see a conflict in iraqi loyalty between either their arab cousins or their theological brothers in iran.

with saudi being the birthplace of islam some 1400 years ago, and the fact that its leaders are ardent supporters of the US administration, id have to disagree and say that saudi will remain the power-player in the ME without a doubt.

it matter not how much crap ahmadinejad spews out, at the end of the day the way i see it, is if saudi were militaril attacked , i would bet my house on it that all of the arab nations as well as the african, asian and european muslim countries will be in uproar over the attack. primarily because of its sanctity as the birthplace of islam. any attack on saudi is looked upon as an attack on islam. regarless of the current despot in its leadership.

compare this with an attack on iran, the backing of most arab and muslim nations would be subdued due to those 2 reasons. 1) race 2) theology.

for this reason i dont see iran being a powerbroker in much of the middle east. its power may encompass iran iraq and some parts of southern lebanon, but thats about all its going to get.

with iran warming up to russia and china, i think the eastern states would think twice before even contemplating supporting iran outright over the US. political aceptance and correctness go hand in hand.

on the issues of the problems that the ME faces in terms of poverty, class, terrorism, conflict, its not as straightforward as saying that poverty is te problem. here for example in the UAE, people have lots of money. more money than any of us would probably have in our lifetime. but it doesnt mean than dueto the lack of poverty that the UAE will be free from the problems of the UAE. money brings other problems like an open society thus opening up the counry to western ideas and thoughts.

the topic of problems of the ME are huge, and volumes of books cannot do it justice, and have been countless discussions and arguments over this here in the politics board. but id haveto say that ww1 and the british meddling in arab and muslimaffairs to unbalance the delicate equilibrium in the ME was a major catalyst. britain, remains to this day scorned by most arabs for this. i still see this as a thorn in their side and i dont see the arabs as forgiving as the british hope they would be.

05-30-2008, 02:10 AM	#9 (permalink)
dlish Currently sour but formerly Dlishs Super Moderator Location: Australia/UAE	you know, i just came home and intended on laying by the pool, bask in the summer sun and have a nice afternoon, but ive decided that this thread needs me more than i need a tan. sure, i could make the odd comment and not really get involved in this converstion as i have before. previously i tended not to get too inolved in the PF due to many reasons. there have been many a times that ive wanted to write but held back. sometimes i regreted this decision, other times i havent. this time ill be contributing more than just my usual sarcasm and sneers. although i agree with some of what UKing has said concerning the ME as an up and coming power, id disagree on the point of iran. in my opinion, iran can only become so powerful. it has limitations as a powerful nation chiefly due to the fact that iranians are not arabs. they dont speak arabic, they are not of arabic lineage, they may share some customs and traditions, but generally they are considered as much as an arab as say turkey or armenia. it will remain and always be persian. because of this limitation, it will lack support from other fellow ME nations apart from maybe iraq. limitation number 2 is the fact that it is a shiite muslim majority country and will never see eye to eye on theology with sunni arab countries as well as other sunni muslim countries the world over. this is a very important aspect of the relationship between sunnis and shiites. theology plays a big part. The arabs of the ME are primarily sunnis, and the shiite population makes up about 10-15% of the worlds muslim population. the only two shiite majority countries are iran and iraq. the only loose cannon being iran. even though there is a large shiite majority in iraq, i see a conflict in iraqi loyalty between either their arab cousins or their theological brothers in iran. with saudi being the birthplace of islam some 1400 years ago, and the fact that its leaders are ardent supporters of the US administration, id have to disagree and say that saudi will remain the power-player in the ME without a doubt. it matter not how much crap ahmadinejad spews out, at the end of the day the way i see it, is if saudi were militaril attacked , i would bet my house on it that all of the arab nations as well as the african, asian and european muslim countries will be in uproar over the attack. primarily because of its sanctity as the birthplace of islam. any attack on saudi is looked upon as an attack on islam. regarless of the current despot in its leadership. compare this with an attack on iran, the backing of most arab and muslim nations would be subdued due to those 2 reasons. 1) race 2) theology. for this reason i dont see iran being a powerbroker in much of the middle east. its power may encompass iran iraq and some parts of southern lebanon, but thats about all its going to get. with iran warming up to russia and china, i think the eastern states would think twice before even contemplating supporting iran outright over the US. political aceptance and correctness go hand in hand. on the issues of the problems that the ME faces in terms of poverty, class, terrorism, conflict, its not as straightforward as saying that poverty is te problem. here for example in the UAE, people have lots of money. more money than any of us would probably have in our lifetime. but it doesnt mean than dueto the lack of poverty that the UAE will be free from the problems of the UAE. money brings other problems like an open society thus opening up the counry to western ideas and thoughts. the topic of problems of the ME are huge, and volumes of books cannot do it justice, and have been countless discussions and arguments over this here in the politics board. but id haveto say that ww1 and the british meddling in arab and muslimaffairs to unbalance the delicate equilibrium in the ME was a major catalyst. britain, remains to this day scorned by most arabs for this. i still see this as a thorn in their side and i dont see the arabs as forgiving as the british hope they would be. __________________ An injustice anywhere, is an injustice everywhere I always sign my facebook comments with ()()===========(}. Does that make me gay? - Filthy