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Quote:
Originally Posted by aceventura3
Stay tuned.
Remember that movie Fatal Attraction, when the character played by Glenn Close says: "I will not be ignored". Well we can consider the fundamentals driving the housing market like Glenn Close's character. If the economy needs 1 million plus new housing units each year, at some point that demand will drive market prices and can not be ignored. They can not create new land, that can not be ignored. They can not stop life cycles of children growing up and wanting to move out, that can not be ignored. They can not stop a woman's desire to nest (oops kind a sexist, but true, are you married yet? Just wait.). Oh, you get the point, its Friday.
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ace, because you are posting about your take on housing driven demand influenced by population increases, and because I have the information below....I'm having difficulty understanding why you are posting such opinions.
There is evidence of an extreme glut of single family homes available, record numbers of them vacant. Prices plummet because of these market conditions, causing prices to drop further. Hundreds of thousands are displaced, driven out of homes, or abandoning them voluntarily, as prices drop below the amounts these folks owe agaist these diminishing assets. Credit ratings destroyed, these folks cannot borrow a dime, conventionally, but they still have to live somewhere, so speculators build some apartment units, anticipating demand from former homeowners who cannot pass a credit check.
Meanwhile, the malinvestment in the now vacant new, previously owned and partially built housing units is money that was not spent or invested on endeavors that reaped any benefit for those involved, and the builders who made money building and selling homes for ten years have mostly lost all of their accumulated corporate equity. The economy, the country, former homeowners, existing homeowners, lenders, builders, realtors, home improvement stores, have all been set back, trapped in illiquid residential assets, taken out of the market, or worse, bankrupted and sold off at distressed price levels.
You, however, see some sort of healthy and growing demand. The millions of vacant homes, meanwhile, are targets of vandals, squatters, lack of maintenance, fires...they ain't improving in value as they sit, month after month. They are vacant because of a lack of demand at current prices.
There are less qualified buyers to purchase these vacant homes. even at today's dramatically reduced prices, than there were two years ago, at much higher price levels.
As home prices continue to drop, more mortgagees are marginalized, and people who only owed 60 or 70 percent of the market value of their homes in 2006, may now or soon own negative ten percent of the loan to value ratio of their homes, as prices drop more.
I don't see your point, ace. It will take ten years to work off the present inventory of vacant homes, helped by some being torn down because they were never completed or suffer, in the coming years, from the pitfalls facing vacant homes, that I described above.
....and all of the sales of these homes will be at prices dramatically lower than what they fetched in sales of comparable homes in 2006. All I see is wealth destruction, ace, and the economy will feel and exhibit the effects from it.
If the automobile market experienced a valuation of new and used cars collapse, as housing is...would you tout the increased demand for bicycles as a sign of a healthy or recovering transport market?
Quote:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...%7D&dist=msr_3
Record number of homes sitting vacant, U.S. says
By Rex Nutting
Last update: 10:19 a.m. EDT April 28, 2008
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The glut of homes on the U.S. housing market worsened in the first quarter, according to government data released Monday. The number of vacant homes in the United States rose by 1 million in the past year to a record 18.6 million, the Commerce Department said. Of those 18.6 million vacant homes, a record 2.3 million were for sale at the end of the first quarter, pushing the vacancy rate for owner-occupied units to a record 2.9%. Meanwhile, a record 4.1 million vacant homes are for rent, with the rental vacancy rate rising to 10.1%. The percentage of homes occupied by owners was steady at 67.8% in the first quarter, matching the lowest percentage in five years.
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Quote:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=au67GKPyS_Dg
.....Almost 200,000 newly constructed single-family homes are sitting empty in the U.S., the most since Commerce Department statistics began in 1973. Partially completed developments reduce revenue for cities and towns and hurt businesses, said Nicolas Retsinas, the director of Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies. Rising foreclosures and falling property values may cut tax revenue by more than $6.6 billion for 10 states, including New York, California and Florida, the U.S. Conference of Mayors said in a November report.
``Half-filled developments are an advertisement for a failing housing market,'' said Retsinas, a former assistant secretary for housing at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. ``It also has a spillover effect on the surrounding community.''
Falling Prices
About 370,000 new homes are for sale because people who initially contracted to buy them backed out, according to estimates in a Feb. 15 report from analysts at New York-based CreditSights Inc. An additional 216,000 homes are under construction, according to Commerce Department data.
In January 1973, the number of finished new homes for sale was 97,000, when the U.S. population was about 212 million, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. In December 2007, 197,000 completed homes were on the market and in January 2008 there were 195,000. The current population is 303.5 million. .....
....The five largest U.S. builders had almost 8,900 completed homes for sale at the end of their most recent quarters, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
D.R. Horton Inc., the second-biggest U.S. builder, held an ``UnAuction'' on Feb. 16 and Feb. 23 with prices cut as much as 50 percent at 23 developments in Southern California.
Pacific West Cos., a Reno, Nevada-based builder, said this month that it's offering a ``risk free'' price guarantee to buyers in its California communities, including El Dorado Hills. If a similar property in the same development sells for less than a homeowner paid, the company will refund the difference.
`Element of Fear'
``We're taking the element of fear away,'' said Taylor Cohee, Pacific West's vice president of sales.
Builders such as Los Angeles-based KB Home and D.R. Horton of Fort Worth, Texas, are seeking out real estate agents to bring buyers to developments, said Joellen Chappell, sales manager at Century 21 M&M and Associates in Stockton, California. Century 21 realtors are now getting commissions of as much as 4 percent for a sale.
``They're bribing us with bonuses,'' Chappell said.
Stockton's metropolitan area had the second highest foreclosure rate in the U.S. last year and again in January. Almost 5 percent of households in that community were in some stage of foreclosure in 2007, according to RealtyTrac Inc., an Irvine, California-based seller of foreclosure data.
At least 14 new-home auctions are scheduled through April in California, Florida, Illinois, Arizona and Nevada, said Brigitte Boudress, a Beverly Hills, California-based spokeswoman for Kennedy Wilson Inc.
Moving Inventory
``The builders are looking for ways to accelerate sales and get inventory moving,'' said Marty Clouser, senior vice president at Kennedy Wilson. The company auctioned 450 properties last year for $170 million at prices 85 percent to 90 percent less than the homes' listings, Clouser said. ....
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