An interesting article in the WSJ looks at the political implications of the "Basra Battle"
Quote:
The Iraqi government's inability to oust Moqtada al-Sadr's militia from Basra has boosted the fortunes of the Shiite cleric while damaging the ]standing of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
(snip)
U.S. officials said that Mr. Sadr was in a stronger political position, as well, because of the public perception that Mr. Maliki ordered the strikes to weaken the cleric and his followers ahead of provincial elections scheduled for October.
If the elections were held today, "there is no doubt in my mind whatsoever that Sadrists would win across the south," said a U.S. official at the America Embassy in Baghdad who monitors Iraqi politics.
(snip)
"President Bush was right that Basra marked a defining moment for Iraq, but not in the way that he intended," said Vali Nasr, a scholar of Shiite politics at Tufts University who has advised U.S. policy makers. "This is the birth of Sadrist power."
Mr. Nasr said that the biggest loser in the Basra fighting was Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, who has been battling Mr. Sadr for control of southern Iraq for several years.
Mr. Hakim is an American ally who leads Iraq's biggest Shiite political party, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, or ISCI. Mr. Hakim's forces have gradually taken control of several large Shiite regions, including the holy cities of Karbala and Najaf, but they have been unable to extend their reach into Basra, a stronghold of Mr. Sadr and his followers.
The government's inability to oust Mr. Sadr means that the Shiite cleric is now in a better position than his rival Mr. Hakim, Mr. Nasr said.
"If the objective was to downsize Sadr, he emerges even more powerful politically and militarily," Mr. Nasr said. "The dreams of ISCI emerging as the sole power in southern Iraq are over."
http://online.wsj.com/public/article...f_main_tff_top
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Could this be the first step in the worst possible scenario for the Bush strategy to bring "democracy" to Iraq....a democracy headed by religious fundamentalists?
If the Sadirsts win convincingly in the southern provincial elections in the Fall, strenghen their position for the next national elections in Spring 09 and possibly win a parliamentary majority, particularly with the sentiment of the Iraqi people opposed to the continued and unending US occupation, and ultimately choose the next PM...replacing a US puppet (Malaki)) with a Sadr puppet.
The big winner in this scenario.....IRAN.
Sadr has called for
millions to march in Najaf next week to express opposition to the US occupation.
If anywhere near that number show up.....Malaki is in deep shit.
If the US interferes in any way with this march and creates a bloodbath....even deeper shit.