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ratbastid · 03-31-2008, 10:57 AM

I predict NC will go to Obama by at least 15 percentage points. Let's say PA is at least reasonably tight (say a single-digit victory for Clinton), and NC and IN go fairly strongly Obama as is expected. Would you then think she should concede?

Her own people have been giving her a 5% or 10% chance of winning. 5% feels slim to me, but 10% feels about right, given the momentum and her apparently inability to make even the nastiest smear stick on Obama.

I agree with you, though--even if this thing stays acrimonious through the Convention, nobody ever went broke underestimating the attention-span of the American electorate. Some sort of MAJOR nasty shit would have to happen at the Convention to have any impact at all on the General, I think.

03-31-2008, 10:57 AM	#39 (permalink)
ratbastid Darth Papa Location: Yonder	I predict NC will go to Obama by at least 15 percentage points. Let's say PA is at least reasonably tight (say a single-digit victory for Clinton), and NC and IN go fairly strongly Obama as is expected. Would you then think she should concede? Her own people have been giving her a 5% or 10% chance of winning. 5% feels slim to me, but 10% feels about right, given the momentum and her apparently inability to make even the nastiest smear stick on Obama. I agree with you, though--even if this thing stays acrimonious through the Convention, nobody ever went broke underestimating the attention-span of the American electorate. Some sort of MAJOR nasty shit would have to happen at the Convention to have any impact at all on the General, I think. Last edited by ratbastid; 03-31-2008 at 11:00 AM..