03-30-2008, 11:49 AM
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#4 (permalink)
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Junkie
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Yep, as of this week. Strange, but true I know. Have you noticed how eerily quiet McCain has been while these two go at it?
Quote:
In Polls, McCain Edges Ahead of Clinton, Obama
By Peter S. Canellos
March 25, 2008
WASHINGTON - These are good days for John McCain. He's been visiting overseas hot spots while his Democratic opponents have been creating hot spots of their own. And it is therefore unsurprising to see McCain inching ahead of Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in some polls.
Still, people in both Democratic campaigns remain confident that McCain will become vulnerable once the Democrats begin campaigning against him. This is especially true, they feel, on the Iraq war. Democrats are deeply confident that voters will continue to side with the Democrats' plans for a phased withdrawal of troops over the Republicans' - and McCain's - more open-ended commitment.
But as the fifth anniversary of the war passed last week, the challenges for the Democrats loomed larger and support for McCain seemed more durable.
Recent national polls have shown voters choosing McCain by large margins over Clinton and Obama as the candidate most capable of handling the war. A recent Gallup poll showed McCain favored on Iraq over Clinton and Obama by identical 54-to-40 margins. A Los Angeles Times poll had McCain over Clinton on the war by 51 to 35, and Obama by 47 to34.
Democrats view those numbers with suspicion, noting that McCain's views on Iraq are more hawkish than the public realizes, since they haven't been much in the news. And pollster Karlyn Bowman of the conservative-leaning American Enterprise Institute tends to agree.
"It's biography" that's driving McCain's Iraq support more than his positions, she said. "McCain has a lot of experience in this area."
But Bowman also points out that polls show that "people are worried about what a quick pullout would mean. That's a second reason they might support McCain."
Indeed, a poll released last week by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center showed that when asked to choose between withdrawing troops as soon as possible - as the Democrats have promised - and keeping them in Iraq until the country achieves stability - as McCain vows - voters chose withdrawal by only a statistically insignificant 49-to-47 margin.
The lines between these positions will become blurry on the campaign trail. All three candidates say they want to bring the troops home as soon as possible - they simply have a different idea of what's possible. And there's plenty of evidence that voters are sensitive to the argument that chaos would result if the United States pulled out too quickly. In a Gallup survey, half the people said a quick withdrawal would increase the chances of a broader Mideast war.
Moreover, the public seems to be dwelling less on the human cost of the war. A Pew survey earlier this month showed that only 28 percent of the public could guess the rough number of US service members killed in Iraq when asked to choose from four options. (The correct answer was roughly 4,000, a milestone passed on Sunday.) More guessed a lower number than a higher one. Just seven months ago, when concern over the war was high, 54 percent picked the correct number - then 3,500 - out of four choices.
Nonetheless, Democrats can take heart over one statistic. In a number of polls, about 60 percent of voters think it was a bad decision to go into Iraq in the first place. And McCain was a strong backer of President Bush's decision to go to war.
But while the public is holding Bush accountable, not much blame is rubbing off on McCain. That could change, especially when Democrats note that McCain is still very hawkish on Iraq, recently suggesting that US troops could stay in Iraq for 100 years if necessary.
The public, however, clearly does not consider McCain an extremist. His opposition to Bush on a range of issues, combined with his nonideological voting record, gives him an image of moderation. His strong stance against torture and his frequent acknowledgement of the pain of war makes him seem judicious.
As the Globe's Sasha Issenberg pointed out in January, McCain - one of the war's foremost supporters - was actually the choice of most antiwar Republicans in early primaries.
"McCain wants to do the war right - in a way that's principled, and that functions as a positive example of the differences between us and the terrorists," Jeremy Varon, a historian at Drew University told Issenberg. "This is the way in which people on the left see him as somewhat admirable: because principles seem to matter to him."
For that reason and more, the election of 2008 now looks likely to follow a familiar pattern, with national security a strength for the Republicans. Democrats might have to keep emphasizing the strength of their economic plans.
Peter S. Canellos is the Globe's Washington bureau chief. National Perspective is his weekly analysis of events in the capital and beyond.
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