I believe Lennon was mellowing politically. I believe the Beatles would have gotten back together in the 80's. I believe Lennon would have probably had much the same career as his peers had in the 80's. I believe had he gone back to heroin he probably would have contracted AIDS, considering the people who did have it and he associated with. I also believe he probably would have been the first Beatle to die, regardless.... via heart disease, drug overdose, cancer, etc. In a few things I have read regarding his life, he was not in the best of health at that point in his life.
Do I believe Chapman changed the world? Yes, I believe Lennon became bigger because of the assassination. He was most remembered for his early 70's anti-war solo material and demonstrations... (and of course the Beatles)... but the 7 years he had been in self exile he had pretty much been left behind. What did his future hold? I think he would have ended up much like Keith Richards/Mick Jagger/Rod Stewart/Elton John/David Bowie/The KINKS/etc. Having hits and making more money than God and for the most part silent. U2, The Police, Morrisey and the Smiths, the Clash... overall, Punk, New Wave, etc. were making their move and having their say by then.
Do I believe that Lennon would still be remembered as almost saintly now if he hadn't been gunned down? Doubtful. I think he'd still be looked at for his words of peace, but overall, I doubt he would have changed much. I think at this point he just was trying to get a grasp on the music industry and write songs that sold. He was not all that wealthy, at that point in his life.
The biggest reason I say this is that a Beatles reunion would have been a HUGE payout, even though all signs point that it was Paul and some George at this point who refused to get the group back together.
This HUGE payout would have taken away John's title of Working Man's Hero and made him look like a hypocrite (which many say he was anyway), thus it could very easily have caused a backlash against John.
Unfortunately.... or fortunately..... depending on how fate would have played out...... we will never know what truly could have been, what the fates, governments and industries would have allowed. All we have are our beliefs and visions of what might have happened.
I would love to say we'd be living in a Lennonistic world and he would have been idealistic to the day he died.... I just don't see it and am a Lennonist.
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I just love people who use the excuse "I use/do this because I LOVE the feeling/joy/happiness it brings me" and expect you to be ok with that as you watch them destroy their life blindly following. My response is, "I like to put forks in an eletrical socket, just LOVE that feeling, can't ever get enough of it, so will you let me put this copper fork in that electric socket?"
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