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I think it's FAR more likely that Jin is alive and on the island. I think that monument is a tribute to him designed to reinforce the story they're all telling rather than him actually being dead.
I'm kind of frustrated that they basically wasted our time to trick us, though. Lost, certainly, loves its plot twists, but I never remember them actively spending time on some which has no purpose other than to create a twist. We learned NOTHING about Sun or Jin or the greater mythology from seeing his flashback. Its sole purpose was to make us think he was coming to meet with Sun and then to pull the rug out from under us. Unless the vagaries of my memory have resulted in me simply forgetting, but I really don't think they've done something like that before. It's annoying, but whatever.
As much as I love Jin and Sun and as nice as it was to finally see all 6 of the Oceanic folks to get back, I think next week's episode will be fantastic.
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