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Originally Posted by JamesB
No. The flu shot has -never- been accurate in terms of covering 'prevailing' strains of the flu.
Not to mention, it is mostly impossible to forecast the spread of the flu due to the amount of travel our populations undergo each year. The last point alone makes 'predicting' what will be the prevailing non-hybridized flu strain will be more or less impossible.
As to your second point regarding H5N1, you should know that the Chinese government is not exactly known for its handling of this situation. By allegedly providing the flu shot to poultry workers, they would NOT have prevented the virus from transforming via transduction. In fact, you could argue that if the workers are provided with (arguably) the more effective live-non competent version of a flu shot, they become a large viral reservoir in which H5N1 could in theory bridge the species boundary. Trust me - it is only a matter of time, as all epidemiologists will tell you.
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Well, as to your first point, you'll have to provide some stats. The CDC, the Canadian health agency, all point to - in general most years - good protection and good forecasting. You'll really need to refute that with similar stats.
As to your second point about China - I believe it was Thailand that innoculated, not China.