Quote:
|
Originally Posted by loquitur
dc_dux, do you have any estimate as to whether Obama will attract more votes because he's black or lose more votes because he's black? I can see arguments either way, and not just among African-Americans, either.
|
loquitor...I dont think it will be a significant issue either way.
The more compelling trends show both Obama and Clinton attracting more young voters, more affluent voters, and more women than previous Democratic nominees....and there is nothing to suggest that race is (or is not) influencing these trends.
The National Journal has an interesting article on these trends:
Quote:
In the crucible of the searing competition between Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton, a new Democratic coalition is being forged.
Their gripping race for the party's presidential nomination has not only increased Democratic turnout around the country -- often to record levels -- it has also significantly changed the composition of that turnout, possibly tipping the party's internal balance of power.
From New Hampshire to California, and from Arizona to Wisconsin, exit polls from this year's contests show the Democratic coalition evolving in clear and consistent ways since the 2004 primaries that nominated John Kerry. The party is growing younger, more affluent, more liberal, and more heavily tilted toward women, Latinos, and African-Americans.
In the 18 states for which exit polls are available from both 2004 and 2008, the share of the Democratic vote cast by young people has risen, often by substantial margins. Voters earning at least $100,000 annually have also increased their representation in every state for which comparisons are available -- again, usually by big margins. Women's share of the vote has grown in 17 of the 18 states (although generally by smaller increments). In 12 of the states, Latinos have cast a larger percentage of votes, as have the voters who consider themselves liberals. African-Americans have boosted their share in 11 of the 18 states....
...Although both Obama and Clinton have benefited from aspects of the shift, on balance most analysts agree that the new patterns are helping Obama more. In most states, he has defeated Clinton among the affluent and routed her among the young, the two groups whose participation has increased the most. "If you look at the groups that are growing, I think it's safe to say that Barack Obama is both causing the majority of it and benefiting the most from it," one senior Obama strategist said....
...The African-American percentage of the vote, somewhat surprisingly, has spiked in just a few states (primarily Delaware and South Carolina); in most places, the increases have been small, and in five states, black voters' share has actually declined as other groups have surged....
full article: http://nationaljournal.com/njcover.htm
|
IMO, Obama's race wont be an issue for most women, young voters or high income voters that are voting (or trending) Democrat in greater numbers.
It may be an issue for seniors, but it could be hidden by their concern about his "experience". It may be an issue for blue color white men (the former Reagan democrats who have slowly returned to the fold)).
And it could have been an issue for Latinos if McCain had not recently backed away from his McCain/Kennedy immigration reform bill that provided a path to citizenship (his new position negates any advantage he may have had with the Latino community to protect his anti-immigration base).