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Actually, Obama is an unbelievably charismatic guy. I was amazed, the first time I saw him on TV, how he almost seems to leap out of the screen at you. He also has a non-combative personality, which is very much in contrast to Hillary Clinton. I disagree with Ustwo about how much his being black is a factor in his popularity; it's not a zero factor, but he'd be impressive as hell no matter what his ethnic background.
Obama will benefit from a long primary battle because, until the candidates are chosen and the national general election campaign begins, most of the electorate's mind is elsewhere. They won't have sustained exposure to Obama until late in the game. The problem with charisma is that its effect wears off over time. That means, if he is the candidate, the more compressed the general election campaign, the better for him. The longer the election campaign, the worse for him because a long stint in the public eye will diminish him just like it diminishes every other candidate - he won't be able to ride on the charisma alone, and he'll end up having scrutiny just like anyone else. That's not to say he couldn't win - it's just that the messianic fervor he seems to inspire won't last.
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