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dc_dux · 02-06-2008, 10:30 AM

McCain's surge has been working (as opposed to the other surge) because he has been able to attract Independent voters in the many states with open primaries while Romney and Huckabee split the more conservative value voters.

But at the same time, Obama has attracted far more Independent voters than McCain in those same states with open primaries.

IMO, race is still an issue among older voters (and not just in the South) and those older Democrats are more likely to be Hillary voters anyway.

If Obama wins the Democratic nomination, he will easily win the Independents and first-time voters over McCain and possibly even win several border states (Virginia, Tennessee) If Hillary wins, the Independents will be in play.

McCain is in a real bind for the general election. If he panders to the social conservative "value voters", he loses the Independents.

02-06-2008, 10:30 AM	#11 (permalink)
dc_dux Location: Washington DC	McCain's surge has been working (as opposed to the other surge) because he has been able to attract Independent voters in the many states with open primaries while Romney and Huckabee split the more conservative value voters. But at the same time, Obama has attracted far more Independent voters than McCain in those same states with open primaries. IMO, race is still an issue among older voters (and not just in the South) and those older Democrats are more likely to be Hillary voters anyway. If Obama wins the Democratic nomination, he will easily win the Independents and first-time voters over McCain and possibly even win several border states (Virginia, Tennessee) If Hillary wins, the Independents will be in play. McCain is in a real bind for the general election. If he panders to the social conservative "value voters", he loses the Independents. __________________ "The perfect is the enemy of the good." ~ Voltaire Last edited by dc_dux; 02-06-2008 at 11:02 AM..