It hard for me to see much success in the last year. The number and frequency of civilian deaths may be down significantly ...or not, depending on who is counting. But is it a result of the surge or might other factors have had an impact, like the fact that 2 million Iraqis have fled Baghad and surrounding areas.
Baghdad has gone from a multi-ethnic city to a Shiia dominated city, with walls separating the Sunni population, including most of the few returning refugees (who are being told by the goverment to stay away because its still not safe). The few Christians and other minorities are gone for good.
To maintain stability in Baghdad, the US is paying and arming Sunni civilians groups, called Concerned Local Citizens, at the same time we are arming the Shiia dominated police force that is infiltrated by Shiia militant militias. Is a clash between these two groups inevitable?
There has been virtually no progress in meeting political benchmarks and the central government is dysfunctional.
In the South, al Sadar's Mahdi Army is in control of Basra.
In the Anbar area, the so-called Anbar Awakening is where the US has paid and armed Sunni tribal leaders to fight al queda. As a result, violence may be down, but these same tribal leaders have built their own power bases with US money and weapons and have yet to show much loyalty to a central government.
In the north, the US is turning a blind eye as our ally Turkey conducts air strikes into Kurdish areas.
Where's the progress towards long term peace and stability...I just don see it.
And by nearly every poll or focus group of Iraqi citizens, speeches in the Iraqi parliament (on the rare occasions when they actually meet), discussions with persons on the streets in Baghdad, editorials in the local newspapers, etc....the Iraqi people believe that their best hope for success is for the occupation to end and the US troops to go home.
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Originally Posted by Seaver
I agree it's hard to gauge, which is why I keep pointing to Murtha. A man who is so strongly opposed to the war from day one is openly stating it is on the mend. I have no doubt he has better access than us to information across the board, and even he has come to believe in the success where no one can say he's just cow-towing to the administration.
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Murtha also said the central government is dysfunctional and the Bush administration must provide an exit strategy.
And I dont recall Murtha ever comparing US troops to Nazis as you allege.