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actually, ratbastid, I think it depends how you define the "surge." Is it jsut the increase in manpower or the change in command and strategy that called for the increased manpower? It seems obvious (to me, at least) that changing to a more population-based strategy under a counter-insurgency expert (Petraeus) has enabled the US military to react more flexibly and creatively, and to take advantage of the opportunity presented by the sheikhs reasserting their authority when AQI overstepped its bounds and got the population pissed off at them.
I wouldn't say it's the only cause, but clearly it has contributed mightily to the increasing stabilization of the country, the return of refugees, the improving economy, etc, etc, etc. A lot of that is also the Iraqis themselves getting tired of the ongoing instability.
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