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Originally Posted by willravel
So it's most likely late deciders despite exit polls?
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No, the interview said the exact opposite.
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GL: Another blog I saw today suggested it was the late deciders. That’s a common answer of faulty final pre-election polls, and it’s one I don’t buy, and it’s one I certainly don’t buy in this case. Because if we look at the exit poll results, indeed if we take out everyone who decided on Election Day, we get a result of Clinton plus four, which is of course, exactly what her margin was. If we look at who did decide on Election Day, it’s Clinton plus three, which is within polling tolerances.
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The polling director is much more inclined to believe that the polls did not accurately predict who would be voting in the primary. As he said, Obama supporters may have been psyched up to vote for him, but perhaps that enthusiasm didn't translate into going out and actually voting. Not unreasonable when the weekend was spent talking about how badly Obama was inevitably going to beat Clinton. Likewise, independents who favored Obama on the Democratic side may have decided to vote for the candidate in the Republican primary they prefer instead, figuring Obama had it sealed.