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Originally Posted by Ustwo
Yes is a giant scare today but one I think is vastly over rated, its the shark attack syndrome.
Lets take that nightmare of aids and me with my 18 year old girlfriend back in the Precambrian. I'll even use todays numbers which are higher, and from the CDC.
As of 2005 there were 5,289 total aids cases between the ages of 15-19 in the US.
Its approximately a 7-1 ratio in aids cases of male to female numbers wise.
Its about a 3-1 ratio of non-white to white.
In a very low risk group in terms of socioeconomic factors.
Sure she could have been one of the estimated 251 white females in that age group with aids, which is high since shes wasn't 15, 16, 17, or 19. The chance of me running into one of those 15-19 year old with aids would be .0025%.
Again that doesn't count socio-economic factors, and thats just those who HAVE it, we are going to assume that those who know and are sexually active or dont' know to be even lower. |
I think, Ustwo, that the 5289 you're citing is newly reported cases in 2005. I don't think it's accurate to say that's everyone in that age group who has the disease. I could be mistaken about that, but I'd be interested to see your CDC source.
Even so, the odds of AIDS being transmitted from a woman to a man are relatively low. Most new cases are women being sexually infected by men, or men being infected through blood contact (needles, etc.). Not all, but most.
On the other hand, since it's a gamble, you could look a it as a gambling problem. The odds are low, but the risk is death (or was, back then). Any decent gambler knows, you don't make the bet that would take you out of the game if you lost it, no matter what the odds.