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Wow. Okay.
Benazir Bhutto is not, and was not, a democrat in any true sense of the word. Let's get that out of the way. She is the head of a dynastic party whose sole purpose has been to empower and enrich the members of a single Pakistani family. Do not allow any gullible journalist to tell you otherwise. She is well-educated and well-spoken, but nothing should endear her to you that is not also true of Musharraf. The general, it can at least be said, is not a kleptocrat. That should not read as an endorsement of him, only an exclamation point on the sorry, sorry state of Pakistani affairs.
As for responsibility, here are my thoughts.
Musharraf and his closest inner circle (particularly Gen. Kiani) were not involved. Nothing in Musharraf's past indicates that he would stoop to killing off a rival. It is also completely unclear that he will gain from this turn of events, and it would have been ludicrous of him to think so.
It is my increasing belief that Al Qaeda - by which I mean that group of people we used to refer to as Al Qaeda prime, the remnants of the organization that was largely pulverized in Afghanistan, and not the sordid and sorry franchises it has spawned the world round - played a direct role in the attack. I don't take much stock in the one report that AQ has already confessed to a local journalist - it is uncorroborated, and the confession remains fiercely contested amongst the radical community, which ordinarily takes pride in these things. However, AQ explicitly declared war on the Pakistani state earlier this summer (a fact that, astonishingly, seems have received scant attention in mainstream news coverage). They have poured increasing resources into propaganda in this area, translating more of their material into Urdu and releasing more videos directly attacking the pillars and institutions of the state itself. I read this as their attempt to take what they know is a state that is both weak and somewhat sympathetic to their aims, and to tear it apart at the seams in order to make room for a new Afghanistan - a safe haven.
I don't believe they will succeed in toppling the state - Pakistan has a tendency to remain hyper-stable even in times of great stress, partially because there are truly so few meaningful political players, all of whom know one another and trade off through the revolving doors of power. AQ does not need to topple the state - so long as whatever new leadership configuration emerges is convinced that it is better off leaving the Islamists well enough alone in the NWFP and tribal areas, they will have scored a major coup.
It is entirely possible that AQ-connected elements pulled this off alone, but I find it a little improbable. It is more likely that some element of the Pakistani establishment was involved. This could be someone in government - particularly in ISI, and perhaps even the army, from within whose ranks assassination attempts have come before. It could also be an outside force not represented by the current opposition configuration - Shaan Akbar of the Insider Brief suggested that he had inside information that the Chaudhry family of Gujarat was involved. I have no access to Mr. Akbar's contacts, so I have no idea. But Mr. Akbar was on Fox News earlier today describing ZA Bhutto as 'the JFK of Pakistan', so he seems to be a dolt (hint: JFK's country did not hang him.)
It's been a long freaking day.
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