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Old 12-18-2007, 01:42 AM   #35 (permalink)
Dr Mario Kart
Tilted
 
Location: Austin, Texas
The PS3 has more problems than a simple "wait for _____" can fix.

1) The price problem
The absolute price of the PS3 is not so much the problem, but the relative prices of their competitors.

At every price point that the PS3 will EVER be at, the 360 will be there first, chipping away at the base of people who will tolerate, in this case $400 as a price point. 360 has been hacking away at that for nearly 2 full years.

When PS3 drops to $350, same problem. 360 has already been there and done that.

2) The ramifications of early marketshare, and secondarily, marketshare in general.

The singular variable of Marketshare has a massive effect on other variables:

Quote:
2a) The effectiveness of price DROPS:
Historically, the price drops of those who are trailing in overall marketshare is that a temporary boost is issued, followed by a slightly higher baseline rate. However, it has not been able to reverse the fortunes of someone who is trailing.

Contrast this with the effect of a price drop if you are in the lead: It further solidifies that lead. (see xbox, gamecube price drops).
Quote:
2b) Developer support

Marketshare is the single most important factor in getting developer support. In this generation, many developers were committed to the PS3 with big franchises long before the PS3 came out. Now its all about multiplatforming, partially due to the massive dev costs incurrred by working with HD consoles, but also because of marketshare.

The PS3 is currently dead last in 3rd party exclusives, where they used to be first.
3) "Wait for _____"

"Wait for _____" is the historical motto of those whose system is trailing in overall hardware marketshare.

Especially popular during the N64 and Gamecube eras, where games of critical acclaim and even good software sales were met with continued lackluster hardware sales.

While it is the case that ONE game, or even a handful of great games can move a lot of systems, it is not enough to make a system successful.

November U.S. Sales:

Nintendo DS 1.53 million
Wii 981K
Xbox 360 770K
PSP 567K
PlayStation 2 496K
PlayStation 3 466K (up from 121K in October [price drop])

November 2007 Top 10 Video Games Rank # Units

360 CALL OF DUTY 4: MODERN WARFARE ACTIVISION (CORP) NOV 2007 MATURE (M) 1 1.57 million
WII SUPER MARIO GALAXY NINTENDO OF AMERICA NOV 2007 EVERYONE (E) 2 1.12 million
360 ASSASSIN'S CREED UBISOFT NOV 2007 MATURE (M) 3 980K
PS2 GUITAR HERO III: LEGENDS OF ROCK ACTIVISION (CORP) OCT 2007 TEEN (T) 4 967K
WII PLAY W/ REMOTE NINTENDO OF AMERICA FEB 2007 EVERYONE (E) 5 564K
360 MASS EFFECT MICROSOFT (CORP) NOV 2007 MATURE (M) 6 473K
PS3 CALL OF DUTY 4: MODERN WARFARE ACTIVISION (CORP) NOV 2007 MATURE (M) 7 444K
WII GUITAR HERO III: LEGENDS OF ROCK ACTIVISION (CORP) OCT 2007 TEEN (T) 8 426K
360 HALO 3 MICROSOFT (CORP) SEP 2007 MATURE (M) 9 387K
PS3 ASSASSIN'S CREED UBISOFT NOV 2007 MATURE (M) 10 377K

Uncharted - 117k
Ratchet & Clank - 67k (140k LTD)

Did someone say Metacritic?



Look at the distribution of Dreamcast, N64 and Gamecube games in the top 10 all time rankings. The best games by itself is not enough to save a console.

Price by itself is not enough to save a console. Every Nintendo home console except the last one launched at $199.

In short, the PS3 has a long, hard fight ahead of it.

Last edited by Dr Mario Kart; 12-18-2007 at 01:47 AM..
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