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If the CSA wins the Civil War for any reason (I kind of see the "why" being immaterial at this point), then Britain and France would have rushed to recognize and normalize relations; they were headed in this direction anyway and were one major Southern victory away from it. For that reason, I see a CSA propped up for a few years (5-20) by these two powers.
By the way, there is no Alaska since the Seward Purchase occurred in 1864. That gives Imperial Russia a presence in North America into the 20th Century as well as the Yukon Gold Rush. Perhaps they would have sold it to Britain to become a Canadian province.
With at best British approval of the CSA (and possible British intervention into the war), the US would pin a dart board on Canada and think about Northern Expansion. Remember that the US invaded Canada during the Revolutionary War and the War of 1812, which was within living memory at the time. If the US takes a northern swipe during the Crimean War, perhaps they walk away with Ontario or Quebec.
Westward expansion becomes another interesting question. Clearly California provides a very valuable western outlet for Asian trade in the 1880's and 90's, and it belongs completely to the US. Would the CSA look to Mexican Terriroty to allow their own westward movement? I don't foresee friendly relations between the USA and CSA, and any CSA movement westward would probably be seen as a threat. Perhaps another war?
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