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There's a really great indie film called CSA that is a mock BBC (in the film "BBS") documentary about the history of the CSA. It posits that a single change--the South having gained the military support that they had sought from England and France--would have resulted in victory for the confederates.
It goes on to describe the how Jefferson Davis instituted an optional tax intended for northern reconstruction, leveed against all former citizens of the United States, which could be avoided with the ownership of at least one domestic or industrial slave. So slavery becomes deeply entrenched in the economy and life of CSA.
The movie is full of clever alternate-history tricks. Lincoln escapes Washington DC and heads for Canada in the company of Harriet Beecher Stowe. He's captured in blackface in upstate New York. Also, JFK was known to have abolitionist leanings, which is of course why he's assassinated.
One thing few people know about is that the Confederate leaders had plans to conquer Mexico and much of South America, to create a "tropical empire" rich in the sugar and cotton trades. So that probably would have happened.
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