11-03-2007, 11:13 PM
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#30 (permalink)
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Junkie
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Originally Posted by djtestudo
Usually I would agree, but when your talent level is so far above everyone elses, as with Rodriguez, it takes longer for skills to drop.
Maybe when he's 36-37 he's 80-85% of what he used to be, but that means he's still a very good major-league player, if not a great one.
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But when he's 80-85% of his current self he'll be making $30M/yr (if he gets his way). Check out this article:
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“In July 2008, Alex Rodriguez will be a 33-year-old average fielding third baseman who will likely have to switch to LF/1B/DH in the very near future. His level of offensive production is right around David Ortiz and Chipper Jones levels although your client is more durable. To be perfectly honest, he isn’t well thought of among a lot of fans. They don’t like him in Texas, and they really don’t like him in New York at this moment. After the Red Sox won the World Series, Boston fans were chanting that they preferred Mike Lowell to Rodriguez."
"Quite frankly, while Alex has kept his nose clean for the most part, he is generally perceived as being as phony as a three-dollar bill. This isn’t Michael Jordan or Wayne Gretzky you’re selling here. Ortiz is on a whole different level of marketability; 'Big Papi' is better liked, is now a World Series legend and makes $13 million a year.
"Here’s the perception: There is another player who isn’t well liked by fans. His name is Barry Bonds. When folks want to make fun of Bonds, they take his picture and Photoshop either a large head or these comic book superhero type arms onto him. When they wish to make fun of your client they put him in high heels and holding a purse. One is called Barroid, the other ‘Slappy.’ Do you see the problem here? Further, despite your cheery predictions, no player has produced at high levels by age 45. The closest we have is Bonds and simply put, A-Rod is no Barry Bonds and his achievements are considered suspicious.
"He will decline offensively, he will decline defensively, and he will steal fewer bases. You like using numbers Mr. Boras so you might be interested in this one: After Rodriguez’s monster year, his career OPS+ is 147. Ten players are right around that—five above and five below. The five in front are Frank Thomas, Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Vladmir Guerrero and Jason Giambi. The five just behind him are Lance Berkman, Miguel Cabrera, Todd Helton, Chipper Jones and Gary Sheffield. In the cases of Thomas, Ramirez, Thome and Giambi, this includes a good chunk of their decline phase—something Rodriguez has yet to begin.
"When you consider that A-Rod will make most of his money with his bat, well, there are 10 hitters in his neighborhood—are any of them looking for a 10-year/$300 million contract? Of course not. That’s absurd.
"He’ll put up some nice numbers in the next few years, we know that. Nevertheless the milestones you’re predicting are years away and the last time somebody gave your client a 10-year deal ... well, he’s looking to play for his third team in the last seven seasons. What guarantees do we have that he’ll play happily here until these milestones are set? He was tired of Texas in three years. And judging by the timing of his opt-out and the fact that you didn’t even have a face-to-face meeting with the Yankees, he couldn’t get out of New York fast enough.
"I can show you a number of statements made by your client that are the exact opposite of what he ultimately did. How can I have any peace of mind paying for these milestones knowing that I only have his word to go on?
"His bat isn’t worth $300 million—the market tells us that. A-Rod’s post season performance isn’t worth $300 million—he has yet to play in a World Series game. Alex’s image isn’t worth $300 million—a lot of people tell us that.
"Rodriguez’s word that he’ll play here for the duration of his contract is most certainly not worth $300 million and no amount of defense and base running is worth $300 million. There are no guarantees that he’ll stay healthy or not get injured away from the field over the next 10 years and no company will insure the sort of contract you’re proposing.
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