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djtestudo · 10-01-2007, 12:46 PM

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Originally Posted by djtestudo

It's the most wonderful time of the year.

Baltimore Orioles

2006 Record: 70-92; Fourth place, American League East.

2007 Projected Record: 85-77; Third place, American League East.

There's off...there's way off..there's off in the next state...then there's my prediction for the Orioles

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Pitching:

Over the past several years, the Orioles had a goal of developing a pitching staff from within the organization. That plan took a step forward last season with the emergence of Erik Bedard as an ace. In addition, former first-round pick Adam Loewen showed promise coming up from AA in late May, then sticking for good after the All-Star Break, including a sub-4 ERA August.

With Daniel Cabrera, who had 157 strikeouts in 148 innings and a 4.74 ERA but who's league-leading 104 walks got him sent to AAA for a short time mid-season, the Orioles have three young starters who, if things go as expected, could give them the best top-three in the division.

To help the Orioles recover from the three-headed disaster of Rodrigo Lopez, Bruce Chen, and Russ Ortiz, who gave the team a combined 328 innings and 6.53 ERA, mostly from the number-four and -five spots in the rotation, the Orioles traded for Jaret Wright from the Yankees, who paid most of his salary, to pair with Kris Benson as veterans in the rotation. However, Benson came to spring training injured, and was replaced by former Mets starter Steve Trachsel.

The bullpen was given one of the most drastic overhauls possible, with only one reliever that was with the team the whole season remaining, closer Chris Ray. Ray was tenth in the league in saves with 33, and a 2.73 ERA. Just about everyone else, however, was replaced.

A total of almost $40 million was spent on the bullpen in the forms of Danys Baez, Chad Bradford, Scott Williamson, and Jamie Walker. From within the Orioles added Brian Burress, who pitched late in the season for the Orioles, and John Parrish, who would have made the team last year, but was injured. Also added is Jeremy Guthrie, a former number-one pick of the Indians who was signed to a minor-league deal but wowed the team with a 1.50 ERA in fifteen spring-training innings.

Bedard might be the best pitcher in the American League going into next season. He averaged 6.5 innings (yes, I know there are no half innings, but the math was exact) per start, and finished ninth in ERA in baseball (fourth in the AL) and fourth in strikeouts (third in AL)...despite missing the entire last month of the season.

Jeremy Guthrie (also known as "Associate Christ") came out of absolute nowhere to finish with a 3.70 ERA, averaging 6 1/3 innings a start, again missing the last month.

Bradford and Walker finished with 3.34 and 3.23 ERAs over 78 and 81 appearances, respectively. The rest of the team didn't do so well.

Daniel Cabrera regressed to the tune of league leads in losses (18) and walks (108), and a 5.55 ERA. He may not return next season. Baez finished with a 6.44 ERA and also hurt his arm and is out through next year. Chris Ray was up and down through the first half, then also got hurt through next season.

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Lineup:

One of the biggest criticisms of the Orioles' minor-league system over the years has been a complete lack of position prospects that have major-league success. The Orioles did not develop a single one on their own between Cal Ripken in 1982 and Brian Roberts a couple years ago. While this is still an issue, a gem was found last season in the form of outfielder Nick Markakis.

Markakis finished the season with a .291 average, 16 home runs, 62 RBIs, and a .799 OPS, made all the more impressive considering he was batting .219 with two home runs and a .615 OPS going into June. He will be the number-three hitter in the lineup ahead of Miguel Tejada and his .330/24/100 season with an .877 OPS.

Second baseman Brian Roberts, fully recovered from the catastrophic arm injury suffered in September 2005 when Bubba Crosby collided with him and nearly tore the arm off, will lead-off, with third baseman Melvin Mora batting second. After Markakis and Tejada will be free-agent Aubrey Huff, coming off two down seasons with Tampa Bay and Houston, and expected to play first base. Catcher Ramon Hernandez, second to Tejada with 23 home runs last season, bats sixth. Jay Gibbons, starting the season as the left fielder but expected to be mostly a DH, will bat seventh. Kevin Millar starts the season batting eighth as the DH. Corey Patterson, coming off of a season where he started on the bench and ended up surprising everyone with 16 home runs, 45 steals and great defense, finishes the lineup.

The reason the seven and eight spots are listed as questions is because of Jay Payton. Signed to be the everyday left fielder, he was injured late in spring training and will miss the beginning of the season. When he returns he will bat eighth in left field with Gibbons and Millar sharing the seventh spot and DH.

Starting the season on the bench will be infielder Chris Gomez, who is not expected to repeat his .341 average, .826 OPS 2006 season, infielder/outfielder Freddie Bynum, and catcher Paul Bako.

The small bench and large pitching staff is needed because of a dearth of off-days early in this season, and a need for insurance for the starting pitching, which has several members not noted for going deep into games.

Markakis still looks like a star-in-waiting, finishing with a .300 average, 23 home runs (leading the team) and an .848 OPS. Roberts batted .291 with 50 stolen bases.

However, Tejada and Hernandez had severe off-seasons, and although Huff had respectable numbers in the second half, he was awful before mid-July.

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Overall:

The Orioles have a chance to compete this year. New York and Boston both have questions with their pitching, Toronto looks to have tread water, if anything, and Tampa Bay has no proven pitching beyond Scott Kazmir.

A lot has to go right, and there is almost no chance for a division title with all of that money ahead of them, but as long as those three young starters continue to improve, and the bullpen and lineup can be at the very least league average, this looks like a mid-80s-win team that will be in the wild card race until close to the end with the potential for much more.

As the Tigers proved last season, there is a reason we play the games.

At least we were 9-9 vs. the Yankees, and get the fourth pick in the draft next summer...