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Originally Posted by dc_dux
Both an NIE from last year and a national security report from several months ago concluded that our invasion of Iraq has resulted in a propaganda tool for al Queda and more terrorist worldwide. There has been no analysis provided by any credible source that the invasion of Iraq had any influence in NK's actions...other that your opinion which you describe as "speculative".
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Speculation is speculation regardless if it comes from me or NIE. The NIE analysis is based on a set of assumptions. I am sure they believe there is a high probability that the assumptions used are correct, but I highly doubt, they would make the statement with 100% certainty. I call speculation what it is, and have no problem with speculating on issues where our knowledge is incomplete. Just as our actions in Iraq could be used as a propaganda tool, our inaction in Iraq also could have been used as a propaganda tool. Who's crystal ball is best at looking into what actually happened compared to what could have happened?
I do not know what the net affect has been on the number of terrorists solely due to our invasion and occupation, I do believe that there are people who choose a side based on our actions, there are some who became terrorists others may have picked a different path.
{added}
Ouch!
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National intelligence estimates are compilations of the best thinking of U.S. intelligence agencies, meant to provide the broadest guidance to government policymakers.
But they can be wrong. A 2002 assessment, for example, concluded that Iraq had continued its development of weapons of mass destruction, held arsenals of chemical and biological weapons and “probably will have a nuclear weapon during this decade.” None of those assertions turned out to be true.
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http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15024576/