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Originally Posted by shakran
I fail to see how accusing him of exaggerating bad news is a compliment  |
He more accurately predicted the market reaction than I did, but the fact remains that the market response is an over-reaction to exaggerated bad news. Most non-media people not in the business of subprime loans, new residential construction or residential real estate in general, are conducting business as usual - certainly not in a panic.
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Unless they're downsized.
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I was "downsized" once and on another occasion I lost a job because the company I worked for went bankrupt. In both cases I dusted my ass off and got another job. Downsizing happens. Downsizing will continue to happen. People collect unemployment, some get severance packages, and some have saved for a rainy day. Loosing a good job often leads to better opportunity, it just depends a a person's outlook. In some cases a "downsized" person may need to move to an area with job growth. Those who wait, and hope that things will go back to the way they were - generally are wasting their time. They need to take aggressive and immediate action when they see what is going on.
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Yes, this is the same bullshit that Bush is trying to convince the public with. Sure jobs are being created. Only trouble is that jobs were first lost in droves. Well paying, middleclass jobs that is. And now jobs at Walmart are being created. Not exactly an overall booming economy if you look at the big picture.
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How about the national nursing shortage. Those are well paying jobs. In my area there is a teacher shortage, every year they have trouble filling vacancies. They also have trouble finding bus drivers. Insurance companies have never stopped hiring and looking for good people. There is growth in the number of government jobs. there are job opportunities in the financial sectors of the economy. The leisure and entertainment fields are growing. And anyone with any ability to sell, can pretty much work in any industry they choose. Or how about all the self employment business opportunities today compared to 10 years ago ( the guy who services my computers, has hundred or so clients, works from home and is happier than he has ever been. Most of the time he comes with his dog, has no employees, no office politics, lucky SOB) A person can easily trade in their welder's mask for another job, and in the long-run be better off. That is not bullshit.
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financed by a mountain of consumer debt. Just wait till the bill comes due because unlike the government, we lowly citizens aren't allowed to just keep borrowing more and more money forever.
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Again, you can not look at debt in a vacuum. You have to look at debt relative to net worth. If a billionaire has a million dollar credit card debt, so what. Even a graduating 22 year old college student with let's say up to $100,000 in student loans and consumer debt may not be in trouble assuming their future income as a result of a four year investment in higher education makes incurring the debt worth while. If a home owner with tons of equity taps into that equity for whatever they wanted to spend the money on, why is that a bad thing? If after the loan on their home they still have equity, so what? Or even if they don't, but are not planning on selling their home anytime soon, the values will go up over time. Just looking at raw debt numbers can be misleading.