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Originally Posted by host
DOW (DJIA) down 366 pts. right now..... foreclosed homes to be sold do not appear in MLS inventory stats....so, with foreclosures at multi-year highs, and rising....the "picture" is much worse, going forward, than this month's inventory of unsold homes "reduction", indicates.....
Today's decline of the DOW (just 30 stocks...hugely overvalued to distort the true, weakened total state of the US stock market.....) is the largest, on a number of total points, probably in at least 5 years.
Bear Stearns stock is in a dramatic....like Country Wide Home Mortgage...
<img src="http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/3m/b/bsc">
"Things" are progressing as I predicted they would, when I started this thread.
I don't think many here will believe, if they look back at this post, next November, (2008) how poor the state of the economy, at the time they are voting for the next US president, compared to the way that it is, now.
The DOW and the Nasdaq and S&P indexes are suffering damage today that will seem slight, compared to how far all three have declined, 15 months from now. Oil is $77.00 per bbl today, it will be somewhat lower, with the US fully in recession, next year at this time..... |
The DOW was 11,125 on7/26/06
The DOW was 12,474 on 1/3/07
Today the DOW will close around 13,441
The S&P 500 was 1270 on 7/26/06
1416 on 1/3/07
and will close today around 1472
It is possible the market will decline further and it is possible that economic growth will stop long enough for the US to be considered in a recession. However, if that happens perhaps the FED will cease its slow growth anti-inflation posture and allow interest rates to fall. If interest rates fall there will be less pressure on ARM's and more people able to qualify for loans. If that happens demand will pick up - - then its off to the races again. The Countrywide CEO thinks that '09, '10 and '11 will be like '03, '04 and '05. I actually hope he is wrong, and that the real estate market in particular reverts back to its historical mean growth rate.