A co-worker and friend of several years is a Turkish immigrant. He has been sure, as long as I've know him....that the Turkish army will invade northern Iraq if the area becomes too autonomous for Turkey's liking. Turkey will never allow an independent Kurdish state to exist in northern Iraq. Turkey still has claims in that area of Iraq that extend to Kirkuk.
I asked my friend yesterday, as he was describing the news of the current buildup of Turkish forces along the northern Iraqi border, if tensions along that border were lower before the '91 Gulf war, when Saddam's government was in control of northern Iraq. He answered that he believed that Iraq had little concern about a Kurdish threat when Saddam was firmly in control.
I believe that US planners of an invasion and occupation or Iraq knew in 2002 that Turkey would never accept an autonomous Kurdish state in nothern Iraq. Since 1984, more than 30,000 have died in the confrontation between Kurds who fight for their own territory and Turkish governments that insist that the Kurds assimilate themselves into Turkish society, just as any other Turkish resident would. The problem is that Kurds demand an independent state that not only encompasses northern Iraq, but also a large portion of southern Turkey where Kurds are the dominant ethnic group.
Kurdish resistance leaders have recently made peace offerings in the hope of ending violence and imprisonment of Kurdish resistance leaders inside Turkey, and Turkish leaders have largely ignored their efforts.
Turkey also has a problem with an ongoing struggle for political power between Islamist and secularlists, with the military continually vowing to make good on it's continuous threats to dissolve any Islamic civil government that it perceives as a threat to Turkey's secular constitution.
There is an outside potential that US troops could find themselves defending Iraq's northern border against fellow NATO alliance troops from Turkey. All it would take is an violent incident inside Turkey that is perceived as being caused by Kurds who are believed to have fled back into the safety of Kurdish northern Iraq, after participating in the incident....
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