Banned
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Quote:
Originally Posted by reconmike
Host, what part of cease-fire do you not understand?
cease-fire or cease·fire (sēs'fīr')
n.
An order to stop firing.
Suspension of active hostilities; a truce.
See how it says suspension of hostilities? It does not state to end or terminate hostilities.
Iraq was in violation of the CEASE-FIRE, which in terms gave Bush every right to resume firing.
Resolution 1441 specifically stated:
And here is 687 so you can see what Iraq agreed to so we would CEASE-FIRE,
there is that word again, and pretell it is written all over these UN Resolutions.
Show me where it says that if Iraq is in material breach of the CEASE-FIRE the United States needs UN approval to go in to inforce the terms that were agreed apon in the CEASE-FIRE, dam there's that word again.
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reconmike, this is what George W Bush told us as he was about to order unilateral invasion of Iraq, without approval from the UN Security Council. He told us that he would seek a UN Resolution that authorized the invasion of Iraq, but....when he obviously didn't have the votes for approval of the use of force by the Security Council, he ordered the invasion, anyway.
It's about proportionality, reconmike. The US and the UK, as the news report included in the thread OP describes....had been bombing the shit out of Iraq, including the described "100 war plane" attack, for at least eight months before the invasion was ordered by Bush.
Quote:
....U.S. and British warplanes have bombed more than 80 targets in Iraq's southern "no-fly" zone over the past five months, conducting an escalating air war even as U.N. weapons inspections proceed and diplomats look for ways to head off a full-scale war......
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Read the following letter, reconmike. Not much of the rationale that Bush gave in that letter, turned out to be true. The difference now, is that the former chief intelligence officer of the US, George Tenet, has written in a book that:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tenet
.....“There was never a serious debate that I know of within the administration about the imminence of the Iraqi threat,” Mr. Tenet writes in a devastating judgment that is likely to be debated for many years.
Nor, he adds, “was there ever a significant discussion” about the possibility of containing Iraq without an invasion.....
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How do the statements in Bush's official letter, square with what Tenet wrote, reconmike? After composing and submitting the letter to congress, Bush ordered a pre-emptive invasion that resulted in massive Iraqi civilian death and injury, widespread destruction of Iraq, toppled their government and destabilized their society, trigggered an influx, into Iraq, according to Bush or foreign terrorist fighters, resulted in the deaths of 3330 US military, and more than 20,000 injured, and is projected to burden the US with a total cost of $2 trillion:
Quote:
For Immediate Release
Office of the Press Secretary
March 19, 2003
Presidential Letter
Text of a Letter from the President to the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President Pro Tempore of the Senate
March 18, 2003
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/relea...0030319-1.html
Dear Mr. Speaker: (Dear Mr. President
Consistent with section 3(b) of the Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq Resolution of 2002 (Public Law 107-243), and based on information available to me, including that in the enclosed document, I determine that:
(1) reliance by the United States on further diplomatic and other peaceful means alone will neither (A) adequately protect the national security of the United States against the continuing threat posed by Iraq nor (B) likely lead to enforcement of all relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions regarding Iraq; and
(2) acting pursuant to the Constitution and Public Law 107-243 is consistent with the United States and other countries continuing to take the necessary actions against international terrorists and terrorist organizations, including those nations, organizations, or persons who planned, authorized, committed, or aihttp://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4158/is_20050429/ai_n14605179/print
Independent, The (London): THE LEGALITYOF WAR: 'Regime change is no basis for war. Rememberded the terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001.
Sincerely,
GEORGE W. BUSH
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Articles of impeachment and a US senate trial are mechanisms to ascertain if Tenet is correct, and if Bush committed the crime of aggressive war. It's called the UNITED Nations, reconmike....and according to Tony Blair's legal counsel, Lord Goldsmith, only Bush & co., of all of the world's UN member governments, asserted that, <b>"the fact of whether Iraq is in breach is a matter of objective fact which may therefore be assessed by individual member states".</b>....and I guess that you believe it, too. So what?
Quote:
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/m...14605179/print
FindArticles > Independent, The (London) > Apr 29, 2005 > Article > Print friendly
THE LEGALITYOF WAR: 'Regime change is no basis for war. Remember
Marie Woolf
THE DANGERS OF COURT ACTION IN RESPONSE TO WAR IN IRAQ
'In assessing the risks of acting on the basis of a reasonably arguable case, you will wish to take account of the ways in which the matter might be brought before a court. We cannot absolutely rule out that some state strongly opposed to military action might try to bring such a case. It is also possible that CND may try to bring further action to stop military action in the domestic courts. Two further possibilities are an attempted prosecution for murder on the grounds that the military action is unlawful and an attempted prosecution for the crime of aggression.'
ANALYSIS
Lord Goldsmith warns explicitly of the dangers of launching a military strike without clear authorisation. He says Tony Blair could face prosecution under common law in the UK courts. The UK, and by implication British troops, could even find themselves tried for murder.
REGIME CHANGE AND A PROPORTIONATE RESPONSE
'I must stress that the lawfulness of military action depends not only on the existence of a legal basis, but also on the question of proportionality. That is not to say that action may not be taken to remove Saddam Hussein from power if it can be demonstrated that such action is a necessary and proportionate measure to secure the disarmament of Iraq. But regime change cannot be the objective of military action. This should be borne in mind in considering the list of military targets and in making public statements about any campaign.'
ANALYSIS
Lord Goldsmith is warning Tony Blair against using excessive force in achieving his aim. He says there are legal implications for Britain launching a full-scale invasion without curbing its fire power in the interests of 'proportionality'. The Attorney General was effectively saying that to flatten Saddam Hussein's palaces, or the homes of his supporters, or to bomb the whole country into submission, could be regarded as a disproportionate response. He then tells Mr Blair to watch what he says. A slip of the tongue suggesting that the use of military force was designed for anything more than ridding Iraq of WMD could land him in hot water legally. It seems Mr Blair did not take the Attorney General's advice on this point too literally. Asked about the advice yesterday, he said: 'I took the view then, [and] I take the view now that it was better for this country's security and the security of the world to remove Saddam and put him in prison rather than have him in power.'
SELF DEFENCE
'Force may be used in self-defence if there is an actual or imminent threat of an armed attack: the use of force must be necessary, ie the only means of averting an attack: and the force used must be a proportionate response. In my opinion there must be some degree of imminence. I am aware that the USA has been arguing for recognition of a broad doctrine of a right to use force to pre- empt danger in the future.'
ANALYSIS
This may go to the heart of the claim made by Tony Blair that Saddam could deploy weapons of mass destruction within 45 minutes of an order to do so. The claim was discredited after it was revealed that it was based on intelligence that was subsequently withdrawn. Lord Goldsmith raises caveats about claiming that invading Iraq is a form of self protection and effectively knocks it down as a legal justification for force. On the US doctrine of preemptive self defence, he says: 'This is not a doctrine which, in my opinion, exists or is recognised in international law.'
<h3>WHO JUDGES WHEN IRAQ IS IN 'MATERIAL BREACH' OF UN RESOLUTIONS?
'The UK has consistently taken the view that, as the ceasefire conditions were set by the Security Council in resolution 687, it is for the council to assess whether any such breach of those obligations has occurred. The US have a rather different view: they maintain that the fact of whether Iraq is in breach is a matter of objective fact which may therefore be assessed by individual member states. I am not aware of any other state which supports this view.'</h3>
ANALYSIS
Lord Goldsmith is agreeing with Foreign Office lawyers who advised Jack Straw that the invasion of Iraq would be illegal without an additional ruling by the security council. Like the Foreign Office lawyers, including deputy legal adviser Elizabeth Wilmshurst, who resigned in protest at Goldsmith's final view that the war was legal, he observes that the US believes that any member of the Security Council can themselves make such an assessment " without agreement from their Security Council colleagues. But Lord Goldsmith says the United States is isolated in this view, and Britain does not agree with Washington.
It is somewhat ironic that, as the Butler report reveals, Lord Goldsmith soon afterwards asked the Prime Minister for his personal view of whether Saddam Hussein had breached the terms of the UN resolutions. In a letter dated 14 March 2003, to Tony Blair's private secretary, he asks for his personal confirmation that 'it is unequivocally the Prime Minister's view that Iraq has committed further material breaches '. The reply was that it was 'indeed the Prime Minister's unequivocal view that Iraq is in further material breach'.
IS UN RESOLUTION 1441 ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY WAR?
'The key question is whether resolution 1441 has the effect of providing such authorisation. As you are aware, the argument that resolution 1441 itself provides the authorisation to use force depends on the revival of the express authorisation to use force given in 1990 by Security Council resolution 678. The revival argument is controversial. It is not widely accepted among academic commentators. I believe that the arguments in support of the revival argument are stronger following adoption of resolution 1441. The question is who makes the assessment of what constitutes a sufficiently serious breach. On the UK view of the revival argument (though not the US view) that can only be the Security Council, because only it can decide if a violation is sufficiently serious to revive the authorisation to use force.'
ANALYSIS
Lord Goldsmith weighs up the pros and cons of reviving previous UN resolutions to justify force. He says the entire Security Council should decide whether Saddam Hussein's violations are so serious they revive preexisting authorisation for military action. On 17 March, after it became clear there would be no second UN resolution, Lord Goldsmith set out a fresh legal view which explains why he thought military action is lawful because of the revival of preexisting UN resolutions 678, 687 and 1441.
The Attorney General's legal view of 17 March came in response to a rather one-sided question. The Attorney General was asked by Baroness Ramsay of Cartvale, a Labour peer: 'What is the Attorney General's view of the legal basis for the use of force against Iraq?' He was not asked for a balanced view or for what the pros or cons were, or the legal basis against. In lawyer's terms, the Attorney General answered the question directly. This may account for why it was only one page long.
GOLDSMITH MEETS THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION
'I have also had the opportunity to hear the views of the US administration ... They maintain that the fact of whether Iraq is in breach is a matter of objective fact which may therefore be assessed by individual member states.'
ANALYSIS
This sheds some light on the mysterious visit by Lord Goldsmith to see the Bush administration in February 2003. It hints that Washington strongly tried to persuade a sceptical Attorney General that war without further UN backing would be legal.
TIMING
'You have asked me for advice on the legality of military action against Iraq without a further resolution on the Security Council. This is, of course, a matter we have discussed before.'
ANALYSIS
This shows that Tony Blair and Lord Goldsmith held informal discussions about the legality of war before 17 March. The question is how far back did these discussions go? Did they go back to the summit between Blair and Bush in April 2002 in Crawford, Texas? We already know that Tony Blair did not ask Lord Goldsmith in writing to provide legal advice. So the request for a legal opinion must have been oral unless any letter from Tony Blair was subsequently destroyed. Downing Street told The Independent this month it had no instructions to the Attorney General about the legal basis for war in its files. The question that must be answered now is: when was the request made?
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Here is the background on the legal "experts" who "share" your opinion, reconmike:
Quote:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,,1474337,00.html
Iraq, the secret US visit, and an angry military chief
The legality of the Iraq war exploded on to the agenda last week, causing chaos to Labour strategy. Here we reveal the key US officials who persuaded Britain that invasion was legal - and the astonishing reaction from our military chiefs
Antony Barnett, Gaby Hinsliff and Martin Bright
Sunday May 1, 2005
........ The US connection
On the sixth floor of the State Department in Foggy Bottom sits the recently vacated office of William Taft IV. Despite the peculiarity of his name, few in Britain will have heard of him or his distinguished Republican pedigree.
Yet The Observer can reveal that this great-grandson of a former Republican president played a critical role in persuading Goldsmith's that the war against Iraq was legal. Taft was one of five powerful lawyers in the Bush administration who met the Attorney General in Washington in February 2003 to push their view that a second UN resolution was superfluous.
Goldsmith, who had been expressing doubts about the legality of any proposed war, was sent to Washington by the Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, to 'put some steel in his spine', as one official has said.
On 11 February, Goldsmith met Taft, a former US ambassador to Nato who was then chief legal adviser to the Secretary of State, Colin Powell. After a gruelling 90-minute meeting in Taft's conference room 6419, Goldsmith then met the US Attorney General, John Ashcroft, followed by a formidable triumvirate including Judge Al Gonzales, Bush's chief lawyer at the White House.
Goldsmith also met William 'Jim' Haynes, who is Defence Secretary's Donald Rumsfeld's chief legal adviser, and John Bellinger, legal adviser to Condoleezza Rice, then the National Security Adviser. This group of lawyers is as renowned for fearsome intellect as it is for hard-line conservative politics. Bellinger is alleged to have said: 'We had trouble with your Attorney; we got there eventually.' From copies of Goldsmith's legal advice to the Prime Minister published last week, it is clear that these meetings had a pivotal role in shaping Goldsmith's view that there was a 'reasonable case' for war.
Goldsmith states: 'Having regard to the information on the negotiating history which I have been given and to the arguments of the US Administration which I heard in Washington, I accept that a reasonable case can be made that Resolution 1441 is capable in principle of reviving the authorisation in 678 [which approved of military force in the first Gulf war] without a further resolution.'
In an exclusive interview with The Observer, Taft has for the first time disclosed details of Goldsmith's mysterious visit to the US capital. Up until now, the British government has been reluctant to give any details of his meeting with the powerful network of lawyers in Bush's inner sanctum who helped persuade him that a second UN resolution was not necessary.
Taft reveals the role Straw played in fixing up these meetings and how pleased the US lawyers were when they heard Goldsmith's final 'unequivocal' advice delivered to Parliament on the eve of invasion.
<h3>Taft, a former deputy defence secretary under President Ronald Reagan, was the man to do that. He had been credited with masterminding the doctrine of 'pre-emption', which argues that a state can take military action to deter an attack. Crucially, Taft was also personally responsible in 2002 for drawing up 1441, which called on Saddam fully to comply with demands to disarm or face 'serious consequences'.</h3>
Speaking from his country home in Lorton, Virginia, Taft explains how Straw set up Goldsmith's visit. 'It was something that grew out of a series of conversations between Secretary Powell and Secretary of State Straw,' said Taft. 'The question was: in particular circumstances - namely the failure of Iraq to comply with resolution 1441 - would the use of force be authorised in the absence of a further decision by the Security Council? We had reached the conclusion that, while a second resolution would be desirable, it was not necessary.
'As a legal matter, 1441 had been drafted in such a way that the Security Council was required to meet and discuss the subject in the absence of Iraq's compliance, but no further decision was needed. Secretary Powell had shared that conclusion with Mr Straw and Mr Straw said his lawyers were looking at this, the Attorney General in particular, and asked, could he meet Secretary Powell's lawyers? Because of that, Lord Goldsmith arranged to talk to us about our views.'
Taft, who has since left the State Department to resume work in the private sector, said: 'Lord Goldsmith met with me and one or or two others in the State Department most of the morning. He then met with our Attorney General, and met with people at the Pentagon - Jim Haynes, and Judge Gonzales and John Bellinger.'
<b>To human rights groups and many international lawyers, this roll-call of Republican lawyers will ring alarm bells.</b> Gonzales, the 49-year-old son of immigrants from Texas, has been at the heart of controversy over detainees in Guantanámo Bay and prisoner abuse scandals at Abu Ghraib.
After a political battle in Washington, Bush appointed Gonzales US Attorney General earlier this year, despite leaks of memos from him that appeared to authorise the use of torture on 'enemy combatants' not categorised as prisoners of war. Critics say his interpretation of guidelines on torture paved the way for human rights abuses at Abu Ghraib.
He was criticised after writing a memo to the President in which he said the war against terrorism was a 'new kind of war' that renders obsolete the Geneva Conventions' strict limitations on questioning enemy prisoners and renders 'quaint' some of its provisions.
Haynes, another Texan, was appointed to the top legal job in the Pentagon in May 2001 and has been a controversial architect of Bush's 'war on terror' under the wing of Rumsfeld. Like Gonzales, he has been embroiled in the Abu Ghraib scandal. His nomination as a federal judge last year led to a 35,000-name petition being sent to the White House demanding the withdrawal of his name.
Philippe Sands QC, an international lawyer whose book Lawless World re-ignited the row over the Attorney General's legal advice said: 'How delightful that a Labour government should seek assistance from US lawyers so closely associated with neo-con efforts to destroy the international legal order.'
Taft denies that any undue pressure was put on Goldsmith or that the British Attorney General expressed grave doubts about the legality of any war. He said: 'We all told him what our views were in the same way ... although he didn't indicate at the time what his own conclusion would be. Our discussions were very straight up and he was looking to understand our argument.'
Laughing he added: 'I will say that, when we heard his statement in Parliament, which was the next thing we heard about, what he said sounded very familiar.'
The visit to Washington click to show proved to be vital for providing a case for war that side-stepped the need for a second UN resolution: the so-called 'revival argument'. This relied on linking three UN resolutions: 678, which authorised the use of force in removing Iraqi forces from Kuwait in 1990; 687, which set the ceasefire conditions at the end of the war in 1991, including the dismantling of weapons of mass destruction; and 1441, which threatened 'serious consequences' if those conditions were breached.
In his 7 March legal advice, Lord Goldsmith makes it clear that some British law officers believed that it was up to the Security Council, not individual states, to decide if Iraq was in breach of its obligations.
But Goldsmith discloses that he had fully taken on board the arguments made to him during his visit to Washington: 'The US have a rather different view: they maintain that the fact of whether Iraq is in breach is a matter of objective fact, which may therefore be assessed by individual member states. I am not aware of any other state which supports this view.'
The advice clarifies a second vital point: that the American legal advisers who drew up 1441 were convinced that it contained, in itself, the authorisation to use force against Saddam if he could be shown to have failed to disarm.
Goldsmith refers specifically to his meetings with the neo-cons and the effect the arguments that Taft and others had on him: 'I was impressed by the strength and sincerity of the views of the US administration which I heard in Washington on this point.'
Taft remains adamant that 1441 gave the US and Britain a legitimate trigger for the use of force. 'We were drafting the resolution having in mind that we might not get another one and we wanted, in the event of non-compliance [by Iraq], to allow our policy-makers to be in a position to do what they needed to do,' he said. 'There was an enormous fight. A draft resolution was tabled stating that the Security Council would have to take further action and this was not accepted.'
Taft is convinced that Goldsmith's final advice to Blair was correct under international law. 'I am still right there. The use of force was entirely lawful and authorised by the Security Council.'
THhe anger of defence officials
By the end of February 2003, more than 50,000 British troops had been sent to northern Kuwait preparing for an assault on Iraq if the order was given.
While the military strategy was going according to plan, back in the Ministry of Defence HQ, Admiral Sir Michael Boyce, the then Chief of Defence Staff, was growing increasingly impatient. Aware of the political debate raging on the legality of the war, he told the Prime Minister he would need 'black and white' legal cover before he ordered the troops in.
As The Observer revealed last March, it was Boyce's fears that soldiers might face prosecution for war crimes before the International Criminal Court that led to his demands for an 'unequivocal' two-line note from the Attorney General giving him the green light.
Boyce's clear demand for this unambiguous statement was transmitted to Goldsmith through the Prime Minister. Boyce's stance has emerged as a key factor in pushing Goldsmith to reconsider his final advice, which was presented to the Cabinet on 17 March and which removed many of his caveats in the 7 March document.
In an interview with The Observer, Boyce said: 'My requirement for legal "top cover" didn't start on 7 March; it started from the time we were getting troops in the area at the back end of February. It was obvious already there was quite a heavy debate going on that lent an air of uncertainty to our troops.
'My concern was that the troops should feel absolutely confident that what they were doing was absolutely black and white legally. So, well before 7 March, I made it clear to the Prime Minister that before we went in we would require legal top cover.'
Boyce said he never saw Goldsmith's 13-page full legal opinion of 7 March. 'I didn't see it ... it was not copied to me. My concerns weren't aroused or sparked by that, but by general concern.
'What the Attorney General didn't say was that it was illegal. It had caveats in it ... and some time between producing that piece of work on 7 March and his ultimate instruction or advice to Cabinet and Parliament and to me ... whatever things that were required to remove the caveats or to consider them to be not so important, I am not privy to. At the end of the day, he provided me with the unequivocal black-and-white advice that it was legal for us to go in.'
Yet in a remarkable admission, when asked if he believed he had finally received the necessary legal cover to protect him from a prosecution before the ICC, Boyce replies: ' No - I think I have done as best I can do. I have always been troubled by the ICC. Although I was reassured at the time when it [the decision to sign up to the ICC] was going through Whitehall about five years ago, I was patted on the head and told, don't worry: on the day it will be fine. I don't have 100 percent confidence in that.'
Goldsmith himself warned explicitly of the danger in his 7 March advice that such an attempted prosecution was a possibility. He stated: 'We cannot absolutely rule out that some state strongly opposed to military action might try to bring such a case. It is also possible that CND may try to bring further action to stop military action in the domestic courts. Two further possibilities are an attempted prosecution for murder on the grounds that the military action is unlawful and an attempted prosecution for the crime of aggression.'
Boyce reveals for the first time that part of his motive for insisting on legal assurance was to ensure that, should he or his soldiers face prosecution for the war, then his political masters would also be called to account. He said: 'My concerns were that, if my soldiers went to jail and I did, some other people would go with me - and that's what I had. I had a perfectly unambiguous black-and-white statement saying it would be legal to operate if we had to.'
Asked whether he meant by 'other people' Lord Goldsmith and Tony Blair he replied: 'Too bloody right!'
'I wanted to make sure we had this anchor that has been signed by the government law officer to show that at least we were operating under legal advice. It may not stop us from being charged, but, by God, it would make sure other people were brought in the frame as well.'
Blair's dark week
For nearly five million Britons, polling day came early this year. The ballot boxes may not open until 5 May, but the postal votes on which many of Labour's most marginal seats will be decided began dropping on to doormats last weekend. And somebody was ready for them.
Beneath the headline 'The proof Blair was told war could be illegal', last week's Mail on Sunday detailed the long-suspected, but never before confirmed, reservations and caveats of the Attorney General. The paper did not have the document itself, but had been read out enough authentic detail for Goldsmith to issue a statement admitting it was genuine.The Government's best kept secret was out - just as postal voters' pens were poised over their ballot papers.
Straw was hauled on to the Today programme on Monday for what one colleague called a 'painful' performance defending the legality of the war. For Straw personally, already struggling with an angry Muslim vote in his Blackburn constituency, it was the worst possible time to be thrust into an argument over Iraq.
The week stumbled from bad to worse. On Tuesday, it was announced that Brian Sedgemore, a veteran Labour MP, was defecting to the Lib Dems. The result was Tuesday's damning headlines, with Sedgemore accusing Blair of 'stomach-turning lies' over the war. It was the final encouragement Tory leader Michael Howard's team needed: the next morning, they launched their own poster accusing Blair of lying to go to war, and asking what else he might lie about to get re-elected.
Blair was in the middle of an interview for Sky on Wednesday, insisting he did not tell lies, when Channel 4 News began reporting an altogether more interesting story. It was another leak of the war advice: crucially, this time it and the Guardian had a copy of Goldsmith's summary - albeit handwritten to disguise the source. The crucial part of the document the government had fought for two years to conceal was now posted on a newspaper website for all to see.
Labour ministers are unanimous in blaming the Tories for having somehow orchestrated the first leak, even though Tory aides insist that is 'pure paranoia'.
It was the second hit that really lit the fuse. The Trade and Industry Secretary, Patricia Hewitt, watching the news at home, shot to her computer to download the document she had never been shown - despite being in the cabinet. By the following morning, John Prescott, the Deputy Prime Minister, was being chased from a press conference by a reporter brandishing a copy of the advice and shouting: 'Do you want this? You haven't read it.'
The farce overshadowed the unfortunate fact that the full 13-page legal advice did not prove Howard's central charge. Admittedly, Goldsmith's conclusion, in paragraph 28, that 'a reasonable case can be made' for war without a second UN resolution was well short of a ringing endorsement, but neither did he say the war was unlawful. Blair had not lied when he said the Attorney General had ruled the war legal in the end - although he had omitted to mention that the definitive verdict was certainly not there as late as 7 March.
By the time Blair took the podium in the basement of the financial wire service Bloombergs' City office on Thursday morning, ostensibly to launch the party's business manifesto, it was clear there would be few questions about corporation tax. Blair angrily dismissed the leaked document as a 'damp squib': asked why, in that case, it shouldn't be published in full, he startled the audience by announcing it might as well since 'you have probably got it all anyway'.
But the crucial intervention came not from Blair, but from the man beside him. Asked if he, too, would have gone to war in Blair's position, Gordon Brown responded with a succinct: 'Yes.' The spontaneous applause came not from the bemused audience of businessmen, but from relieved Labour aides. Brown had passed up a golden chance to make personal capital out of the war - even though he could hardly have done otherwise in public. Hewitt, sharing the platform, could not resist exclaiming: 'Well done.'
Help also came from an unexpected source. At his morning press conference, Howard was asked whether - given the same legal advice - he, too, would have invaded, he confirmed he would. The logic of his position was crumbling.
On Thursday night, as the three leaders submitted to the David Dimbleby treatment on Question Time , Howard went still further, confirming he would have gone to war knowing there was no WMD. Saddam was still a threat, he said, and he favoured 'regime change-plus' - words anti-war voters love to hate.
When Howard asked the Question Time audience how many people thought Blair had told the truth on Iraq, few hands shot up. And yet his decision to 'go negative' on Blair's character now looks like an own goal: a Populus poll yesterday showed that almost half of voters were less likely to vote Tory as a result. Whatever people think of Blair, they apparently don't want to hear it from Howard.
The danger for Labour, however, comes not just from Howard. Charles Kennedy's stance on Iraq already puts him in pole position for anti-war votes: his mission now is to vacuum up floating voters, particularly women, who hate not the war, but the playground shrillness of debate about it.
His trick of hovering statesmanlike over the fray - Kennedy has criticised both Howard's choice of language and Blair's angry dismissal of the legal advice as a 'damp squib' - may be trickier to maintain given his own party's latest election broadcast, which caricatures the Prime Minister as the boy who cried wolf over WMD. But in about half a dozen seats, such as Islington South or Hornsey and Wood Green in London, Labour strategists admit that the furore over the legal advice could be enough to swing them Kennedy's way.
No wonder one minister, in a seat way down the Tories' hit list, is now writing two speeches for election night, one for winning and one for losing: 'It's undoubtedly close. Iraq, Blair and council tax are the three issues that keep coming up, and the answers I'm giving are not the sort that people want to hear.'
Others on the front line, however, insist that minds are already made up about the war, legal advice or no legal advice. 'If people are going to [vote against me] on the war, they tend to have been very definite from the start,' says one experienced Labour MP fighting a stiff Lib Dem challenge. 'They have had a couple of years to think about it, after all.'
There is, of course, an incentive for Labour to exaggerate the danger: if the election looks 'in the bag', as Alastair Campbell did not quite say last week, reluctant supporters will not bother to vote. A growing number of ministers are now arguing for an extended diet of humble pie, even if Labour is returned with a healthy majority. There must, they argue, be no triumphalism, and not just over Iraq: too many voters are angry and disillusioned about issues ranging from public services to immigration.
'If we get back with a reduced majority, we cannot have a scintilla of arrogance: he's got to show he's clocked it,' says one senior minister. Sedgemore's claims this weekend, in a GMTV interview, that 'hundreds' of MPs are poised to turn on the leader after the election are exaggerated, but his own mini-revolt is only one of several being planned on the left once the election is over.
There are threats of a stalking horse candidate running against Blair if he refuses to resign forthwith: Bob Marshall Andrews MP, the maverick left-winger, has publicly spoken of 'serious movements' to change the leader. A string of left-wing MPs, dutifully silent during the election, are planning speeches in the first two weeks of May, calling for a radical change of direction for the party.
Nonetheless, the threat of a revolt has been lessened by Brown and Blair's campaign rapprochement - and, in a shrunken parliamentary party, it may be uphill work to find the 82 MPs' signatures necessary for a coup. A majority of anything over 50, and Blair is probably safe: winning fewer than 209 seats, and Howard is not. But even a halved majority would rattle nerves.
One Blairite minister gloomily predicts 'a bloodbath' after polling day, as recriminations are traded between Brown and Blair camps for lost seats: 'This is the calm before the storm. I may be wrong, but I'm worried it will be the two sides back at it again.'
The young woman who stepped into Tony Blair's path as he finished his whirlwind tour of a nursing home in Risley, Northamptonshire, on Friday afternoon was nervous but emphatic. 'I just wanted to say, don't rise to the bait,' she told him, adding that she didn't want to get political but was upset by the tone of the Tory campaign.
Blair must now hope that Iraq, for all the damage it has done in the past week, is now finished business, at least for the rest of the campaign.
Today's revelations of the American meetings, the anger of Boyce and the faltering Labour lead in the polls will ensure that those around Blair continue to bite their nails as the last 96 hours of the campaign hove into view. Four days to go - four days during which Britain's longest serving Labour Prime Minister will wonder, as he races from town to town, speech to speech, interview to interview, if the result on 6 May is really in the bag.
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Your argument, reconmike, seems to me to be akin to a game of "pocket pool". Do you know what that is? The Bush admin., neocon lawyers wrote resolution 1441 to give these co-conspirators who launched a war of aggression, "an out".
The problem is, if Tenet is accurate in his book, they (Bush and his neocon enablers) are still guilty of planning and carrying out the ultimate crime against humanity, aggressive war. Those who died in the war that didn't have to happen....the war that Tenet says was never even debated as to whether it was necessary or avoidable, are victims of the same crime of aggressive war that the allies at Nuremberg hanged the leaders of another aggressor nation that waged aggressive war, for ordering and carrying out.
Tenet "fingers them", with these damning statements in his book. Can Tenet's statements and what they imply, be ignored by democrats in the house and senate who have the authority to find out if they are accurate, or will the democrats use the authority that they gained in January to make Tenet, and then Bush and Cheney explain themselves and their roles in the invasion and occupation of Iraq?
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