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Originally Posted by dc_dux
Ace...the housing industry doesnt share your optimism.
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Perhaps what they say and what they do are different. My interest is in what they do.
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Single-family housing starts in March were at a rate of 1,218,000; this is 2.0 percent (±10.5%)* above the February figure
of 1,194,000. The March rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 262,000.
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http://online.wsj.com/public/resourc...ts/bbstart.pdf
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A press release from NAHB this week:
The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (for whatever its worth) has been in steady decline since 2005:
http://www.nahb.org/generic.aspx?sec...cContentID=529
Isnt a decline in the HMI from 65 in Sept 05 to 33 in April 07 sorta like a free fall...at least in terms of how builders and potential buyers perceive the market.
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Interesting - perception vs. reality. At Disney land they have a ride that gives the perception of a free fall, I hope people who ride it don't walk away beleiving it was reality.
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Originally Posted by host
I see builder sentiment dropping below 10, and....since
When I posted here:
[uthis is the biggest housing price valuation bubble and lending excess period in US history, average valuation declines of 40 and even 50 percent are certainly expected.
Indeed....in some Florida condo markets, these levels of decline have already been reached.
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If sentiment was the market driver, why hasn't new money stopped going into new land development?
There are fundemental questions that get avoided in your analysis, the above is an example. If you have an answer to that there are others.
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I hope that you were "playing" with me, in your last post, ace. I'll worry about you if you really were serious in advising me not to post on this subject, because you say the crisis is over, or never existed.....
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Generally, I respond poorly when people dismiss my ananlysis as believing in "fariy tales". I think it is a desperate attempt when a responder has no logical response, and if that is the best they have, I percieve the response as conceeding. I see that you don't conceed, so we continue.
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....back on Feb, 23....less than 2 months ago.....only 23 of these lenders had imploded.....
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True.
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Now that the private sector will no longer write risky loans.....putting pressure on housing valuations due to increased foreclosures of overvalued homes, purchased by unqualified buyers with no means of maintaining ownership in a climate of falling housing valuations....along comes a GSE....the government....to the rescue. They looked scared ace.....this is not a development in a healthy market, or in a healthy economy. It smells of the government propping up housing valuations because the alternative is reality.....something that you are avoiding acknowledging, ace:
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Mortgage lending has tightened but people still get loans. Mortgage lending goes in cycles like most other things.
I assume you saw this:
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American consumers continued to spend steadily in March, as employment growth and wage gains helped to offset the housing slump. Still, the pace of spending growth has slackened since last year.
The Commerce Department reported yesterday that U.S. retail sales rose a seasonally adjusted 0.7% in March, following a revised 0.5% increase in February. The March gain was heavily influenced by a sharp rise in sales at gasoline stations, which reflected the rising cost of crude oil. But even excluding gasoline stations, retail sales rose a moderate 0.4% in March, the same as February.
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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1176...N=wsjie/6month
I guess "it" really won't start until the chart's trend reverses. we will see what happens next month.