Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Hektore
My prediction is a pretty big collapse of the insurance industry. Those of us that fall into the 80% who have greater than a 99% chance of never racking up huge medical bills should be able to manage on our own until we start to get up there in years. The majority of people who pay insurance and keep the industry going will no longer be willing to do that, since the amount of medical bills they will be liable for in their young, healthy life will be very small. So there won't be anyone to pay the bills for those that need the money, besides themselves so they won't need insurance either, since they're footing the whole bill either way.
|
You had me up to right there.
First, it's possible that this will devastate the health insurance industry. The rest of the industry (life, property, casualty) will be just fine.
Second, and most importantly, the health insurors are very smart. You don't build a multi-billion dollar industry by being anything but smart. That said, I think that some insurors are screwed if they don't jump on the bandwagon quickly.
Here's my prediction: the health insurers will start requiring genome sequencing once the price sinks below $1,000 per test. However, that won't matter in group plans. Group plans are already based on the 80/20 rule, and they're usually priced on what has been paid over the last few years for the group's coverage. Those group plans will keep being priced the same way because there's no way to filter out the 20% from an employer.
Individuals will be a much bigger problem. What's most likely to happen is a few people will get either cancelled or denied and the state legislatures will get involved. They'll most likely make it illegal for insurers to cancel coverage for someone, which will be fine for people who already have coverage but bad for those that don't.
Honestly, it's most likely going to lead to universal healthcare, but not for 20+ years. The technology isn't there yet, and neither is the cost. Once those happen, we're still 10 years away.
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Ourcrazymodern?
Insurance is like a vampire.
|
Or a prudent thing to buy if you don't have a crystal ball. We all expect the other guy to have insurance and no one ever does anything wrong.
Sorry, but I've got a million examples of why insurance is absolutely necessary in today's world. Health insurance is a pain, but insurance generally is a very good thing. Show me somewhere else where you can pay $500 to get $1M.