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Old 04-11-2007, 07:20 AM   #69 (permalink)
aceventura3
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Location: Ventura County
The data does not support an implosion in the realestate market. Alarmist simply want to make headlines, so until there is a material change in the info below, market fundementals will stay strong.

http://www.mnforsustain.org/pop_us_2...0_pyramids.htm

Projected population growth 1999 to 2020 is 57 million.

http://www.census.gov/const/newressales_200702.pdf

Quote:
NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES IN FEBRUARY 2007
Sales of new one-family houses in February 2007 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 848,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 3.9 percent (±17.4%)* below the revised January rate of 882,000 and is 18.3 percent
(±12.2%) below the February 2006 estimate of 1,038,000.
Currently they are building new single family homes at a rate of 848,000 per year.

http://www.census.gov/population/www...m/cps2006.html

Average household size is 2.57

Therefore there will be about 22 million new households between 1999 and 2020, or a need for an average of 1.1 million new households per year.

Using the above numbers there is an average deficit of about 252,000 housing units per year.

What I don’t know is how many multi-family dwelling units being constructed or the rate in which existing homes are being made obsolete each year. However, no matter how I look at the numbers plugging in assumptions for apartments and obsolesence, the long-term trend for real-estate is good and we are in a short-term correction.

No implosion.

This map shows where the increase in delinquencies are, it is moderate in most of the nation except for Nv, CA and Fl. The folks in those markets should be very concerned, however most need not worry.



http://online.wsj.com/public/resourc...0704-sort.html
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Last edited by aceventura3; 04-11-2007 at 07:38 AM.. Reason: Automerged Doublepost
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