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Old 03-14-2007, 09:28 AM   #54 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aceventura3
I read this morning in IBD that new forclosures as a percentage of total mortgages are at an all time high - 0.54%. That is about 1 in 200 homes with mortgages. Mortgage deliquency rates are at 4.5%, highest in about 4 years. Adjustable subprime loan deliquency rates are at 14.4%, again the highest in 4 years. Many think things will get worse before getting better. I think panic is going through the market. I will sit on the sidelines until the dust settles.

The irony is that once this all settles, many hard-working middle class and poor will not be able to buy homes. Small mortgage companies and banks will have to operate in an environment with increased regulation, making them less competetive with the big banks. The market will be less competetive and consumers will pay higher fees and higher interest rates. Big banks, big corporations, and the rich will win. <b>If you think that is a good thing - keep encouraging panic.</b>
....should this thread be banned.....(or at least my posts....?) your post had the same effect on me as the foxnews "piece" that I posted earlier here....the writer titled it <a href="http://news.google.com/news/url?sa=t&ct=us/0-0&fp=45f8d7d3fd5c05ff&ei=Fir4Rf__Lbn6sAHmhqihAQ&url=http%3A//www.foxnews.com/story/0%2C2933%2C257002%2C00.html&cid=0">"Two Words Mr. Greenspan: Shut Up"</a>

....are you accusing me of a "not supporting the troops", "syndrome", ace....
Are those of us who see something "not right".....extraordinary....about an "injection" of $4.7 trillion into a "pool" of total outstanding mortgage debt, in just six years, that propels the total from less than $6 trillion in 2001, to the current $10.5 trillion, now....really wrong to call it as we see it?

...to "call it" when, suddenly, just since december, 36 of the top 100 subprime lenders, go under, get absorbed at near firesale prices and then become a toxic drain on their new owners, or simply cease to operate.....a start of a decline to an economic depression....

...am I really the problem, ace....or is the problem a series of aggressive Fed and US government interference in the direction of markets.....markets that you seem to see as relatively "free and unfettered"...., that is as long as the government interferes to prop them up, and inject liquidity and policies that make them only go up? It started in the current cycle with the Fed arranging a bailout for imploded hedge fund, LTCM in 1998, and that triggered the perception of the Greenspan "put", and that fueled the tech stock bubble that was capped off by a March , 2000 Nasdaq index high of 5138, followed, less than three years later, by a low in the same index of 1107, followed by the Fed lowering the overnight, interbank lending rate to one percent, triggering a speculative bubble in real estate....flamed by the low interest rate and ever more "relaxed" lending standards, and an actual bias by the Fed and the CEO of Freddie Mac....to lend at 100 percent in an environment where home valuations are increasing at 5 to 10 percent annually....lending with an official nod that was the driving force....for too long, in the 5 to 10 percent annual average appreciation....

No, ace....I'm not "talking down" the economy or the markets, anymore than folks who demand an end to the lying, self-destructive folly that is the US involvement militarily in Iraq, is "failing to support the troops". I didn't put the troops there or keep them for 4 years, after "fixing the intelligence to match the policy" to manipulate the passage of an Oct. 2002 congressional resolution that gave the executive branch the power to "send in the troops" to stop the "WMD programs" of a "friend of al-Qaeda" who was a "menace to his region",and to the United States....and he's developing missiles and nukes and can we wait until we see a mushroom cloud......

....No ace....I'm doing the same thing that I've done here since Sept., 2004, calling "it" as I see it.....in real time.....with a track record of accurate prediction that is strong enough for me to mention it....

....I've given you stock tips that, if followed, would have brought anybody who reacted to them, some quick market profits, ace....and If I influence even one or two readers to consider what I describe is happening to our economy, housing valuations, and credit availability, I'll feel some satisfaction.

In your last post, you've thrown a "straw man" argument at my, ace, but you also conceed, which you didn't, earlier in this thread, that there is cause for concern about an economy that you claimed was driven up by "tax cuts". I claimed that it was driven by deficit building federal borrowing and home owner mortgage equity extraction (MEW) and spending the extracted funds.

If the economy has the sound fundamentals and robustness that you have claimed in this thread, and in a number of others, why accuse me of anything negative by claiming that I'm "talking 'er down". Why should you even be concerned enough to post that last sentence in your preceding post, if nothing that I've posted concern about, will negatively affect your business as usual, "its' a great economy", opinion?

.....oh....and ace....they're being made to swallow their own toxic sludge....just a taste....nothing near the probable $2 trillion in MSB's foisted on "marks" and "bag holders", such as the "high returns" seeking managers of the pension funds of too many ordinary Americans.....

...and they'll drown on their most recent accumulation of subprime and Alt-A mortgage loans, but the American public....concentrated in home owners and folks with pension assets, will swallow the trillions that they already "packaged" and sold via BSC and LEH....and they won't write any new "sludge" loans, because they don't like the taste, and liquidity dries up....and down, down, down, we go....There was "panic" in October 1929, when the DOW index dropped from the 393 high, just the month before, to below 200, before rebounding for a year or more....to the upper 200's. It was quiet on July 8, 1932, when the DOW traded at the lowest level that it has since then....41 that day. "Panic" isn't what brings down the markets, fundamentals eventually do that:
Quote:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/stor...BA45696D47C%7D
National City to keep $1.6 bln of loans that were for sale

By Chad Clinton
Last Update: 8:08 AM ET Mar 14, 2007

National City Corp. (NCC :
National City Corporation
News , chart , profile , more
Last: 35.36-0.39-1.09%
1:19pm 03/14/2007

Sponsored by:
NCC35.36, -0.39, -1.1% ) said Wednesday that its remaining $1.6 billion of non-comforming loans held for sale <b>are currently not salable at what management considers an acceptable price</b> due to "adverse market conditions."
As a result, the Cleveland financial-services company <h3>plans to retain the loans and transfer them back into their portfolio this month.</h3>
....and NCC is a shortsell stock tip ace....a long term one....and so are BSC and LEH, and GS, and probably 90 percent of everything else listed on the NYSE and on the NAZ....unless Sen. Tom Dodd and Ben Bernanke can rescue us....OHHHH!! THE HUMANITY !!

Last edited by host; 03-14-2007 at 09:51 AM..
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