Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community - View Single Post - 1992 Redux: Will "it's the economy, stupid", Be The Big Campaign Issue?

aceventura3 · 03-07-2007, 11:28 AM

I am not trying to persuade you or anyone of anything. What we have is just a different view of market economics. That's o.k., when I am a buyer I need sellers like you and when I am a seller I need buyers like you. Either you win or I do. that is what I love about free markets.

Subprime is the problem of the day. Next week there will be a new one. However, the real problem involving entitlements won't go away - social security and medicare.

On LEND - I am not a short-term trader. I just hppened to pick LEND from your list and looked at it in more detail. It is actually not a bad stock. Once it gets through this subprime issue, it will be o.k. Also, your chart doesn't show it but the stock "gapped down in August of '06 on strong volume, it gapped down again in October '06 on strong volume and gapped down again in March. The time to sell was in August or October. Some large institutional investors were clearly getting out at that time and have continued selling. LEND was over-valued, and most likely still has about 20% fat in its price depending on what happens next in the subprime lending market. If it drops to about $13, that would be a good time to buy, assuming about a 6 PE, 6% growth and about an 8% discount rate . The estimated 5 year growth rate is about 10%, but analyst have started making reductions.

03-07-2007, 11:28 AM	#35 (permalink)
aceventura3 Junkie Location: Ventura County	I am not trying to persuade you or anyone of anything. What we have is just a different view of market economics. That's o.k., when I am a buyer I need sellers like you and when I am a seller I need buyers like you. Either you win or I do. that is what I love about free markets. Subprime is the problem of the day. Next week there will be a new one. However, the real problem involving entitlements won't go away - social security and medicare. On LEND - I am not a short-term trader. I just hppened to pick LEND from your list and looked at it in more detail. It is actually not a bad stock. Once it gets through this subprime issue, it will be o.k. Also, your chart doesn't show it but the stock "gapped down in August of '06 on strong volume, it gapped down again in October '06 on strong volume and gapped down again in March. The time to sell was in August or October. Some large institutional investors were clearly getting out at that time and have continued selling. LEND was over-valued, and most likely still has about 20% fat in its price depending on what happens next in the subprime lending market. If it drops to about $13, that would be a good time to buy, assuming about a 6 PE, 6% growth and about an 8% discount rate . The estimated 5 year growth rate is about 10%, but analyst have started making reductions. __________________ "Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on lunch." "It is useless for the sheep to pass resolutions on vegetarianism while the wolf is of a different opinion." "If you live among wolves you have to act like one." "A lady screams at the mouse but smiles at the wolf. A gentleman is a wolf who sends flowers."