Tilted Forum Project Discussion Community - View Single Post - 1992 Redux: Will "it's the economy, stupid", Be The Big Campaign Issue?

aceventura3 · 03-06-2007, 06:44 PM

My "simplistic" or "black and white" response is that there is intrinsic value and there is speculative value. During periods of market euphoria speculative value increases and gets out of control, however intrisic value stays grounded in the fundementals of the market. Personally, I always try to stay focused on intrinsic value. I think smart money or wise investor gurus like Warren Buffet, or the late Benjamin Graham also stay focused on intrinsic value. Speculative value comes and goes. when a market crashes it normally is not a crash but more of a sudden decrease in speculative value still supported by intrisic values. If intrisic values suddenly declined, in my book that would be a crash, if this happens it doesn't last long because smart money comes in for the easy gains when the intrisic value goes back to equilibrium.

My point is that real-estate has intrisic value. That value will increase over time and has historically increased over time. Speculative value is currently being taken out of the market. This is good. Smart money wants this to happen. Smart money sees this as healthy, you don't. All the citations, quotes, stats in the world won't prove the above - you either get it or you don't.

Those who don't get it will generally always be on the wrong side of the trend.

Six months from now when we look at the stats we will see that today we have already hit and past the real-estate bottom. You can say you heard it here first.

That is my market call. What's yours?

How about a wager. If you are correct and I am wrong I will donate $100 to your favorite charity, and you do it if the opposit is true.

03-06-2007, 06:44 PM	#30 (permalink)
aceventura3 Junkie Location: Ventura County	My "simplistic" or "black and white" response is that there is intrinsic value and there is speculative value. During periods of market euphoria speculative value increases and gets out of control, however intrisic value stays grounded in the fundementals of the market. Personally, I always try to stay focused on intrinsic value. I think smart money or wise investor gurus like Warren Buffet, or the late Benjamin Graham also stay focused on intrinsic value. Speculative value comes and goes. when a market crashes it normally is not a crash but more of a sudden decrease in speculative value still supported by intrisic values. If intrisic values suddenly declined, in my book that would be a crash, if this happens it doesn't last long because smart money comes in for the easy gains when the intrisic value goes back to equilibrium. My point is that real-estate has intrisic value. That value will increase over time and has historically increased over time. Speculative value is currently being taken out of the market. This is good. Smart money wants this to happen. Smart money sees this as healthy, you don't. All the citations, quotes, stats in the world won't prove the above - you either get it or you don't. Those who don't get it will generally always be on the wrong side of the trend. Six months from now when we look at the stats we will see that today we have already hit and past the real-estate bottom. You can say you heard it here first. That is my market call. What's yours? How about a wager. If you are correct and I am wrong I will donate $100 to your favorite charity, and you do it if the opposit is true. __________________ "Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on lunch." "It is useless for the sheep to pass resolutions on vegetarianism while the wolf is of a different opinion." "If you live among wolves you have to act like one." "A lady screams at the mouse but smiles at the wolf. A gentleman is a wolf who sends flowers." Last edited by aceventura3; 03-06-2007 at 06:49 PM..