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Old 03-05-2007, 11:26 AM   #13 (permalink)
host
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Quote:
Originally Posted by aceventura3
....Until some high level economic guru addresses that argument, panic over short-term market volitility is an excercise in trivia on a macro level. On the flip side local markets are a different animal governed by thier own market issues.
Thanks for clearing that up for us, ace....however, the "tell", as I see it...is that 20 percent of the new mortgages and refis done in the last few years were to subprime borrowers. Since december, with no signficant economic downturn, and no pain to the consumer from unemployment as of yet....only a slow down in the res real estate market and a slight reversal to the negative, in housing price appreciation, has triggered the collapse of nearly the entire subprime mortgage lending industry. It is easy to imagine what a spike in unemployment and a sustained decline in home valuations would cause. This is the biggest, most prolonged run up in housing prices and over building in the US, ever, and the reversal and depression in the housing market will most likely be the mirror image of the run up, both in scope and duration.....

Here are some of the top ten subprime lenders, today....the ones that haven't filed for bankruptcy...yet...or been absorbed by large banks for a pittance of their former high flying stock prices. Pension funds and mutual funds held significant positions in these companies, and the equity....is gone for good. That is not volatility....it is permanent wealth destruction:
<img src="http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/c/6m/n/new">
<img src="http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/t?s=NEW">
<br>
<img src="http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/6m/n/nfi">
<img src="http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/t?s=NFI"><br>
<img src="http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/6m/n/lend">
<img src="http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/t?s=LEND"><br>
<img src="http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/6m/n/fmt">
<img src="http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/t?s=FMT">

<b>Three of four of the stocks of these subprime lenders dropped dramatically today. They lent to subprime mortgage applicants across the US, there will be no replacements for these national landers, borrowing qualifications will be tightened, and there will be significantly fewer first time buyers entering the home market. In the now ending, "bubble era:, anyone who wanted to own a home could simply fill out paperwork with little or no verification of it's accuracy, and borrow the entire purchase price and even the closing costs. Only interest had to be paid on these mortgage loans....at under 5 percent annually in many cases, for the first few years. Millions of folks who are obligated to make monthly payments on these mortgages, won't when they find themselves owing ten or twenty percent more than they borrowed, because of real estate price declines, and/or they won't qualify when their short term, subprime "buyer's mortgage", must be refinanced with a new mortgage at a new, lower home appraisal value, and with terms that include a higher interest rate and added principle payments.

Thus it is not difficult to anticipate that there is little foundation to support ace's "no problem here.....", opinion.</b>

Last edited by host; 03-05-2007 at 11:44 AM..
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