View Single Post
Old 03-01-2007, 12:26 PM   #2 (permalink)
aceventura3
Junkie
 
aceventura3's Avatar
 
Location: Ventura County
Quote:
Originally Posted by roachboy
it appears that the bush administration is in the midst of changing direction on iraq...the british are withdrawing, so there is pressure mounting in anticipation of an upsurge of violence in the south...the following assessment of the situation on the ground in iraq, summarized in today's guardian, is pretty grim:



source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,,2023865,00.html



so it appears that the bush squad is beginning to explore other, potentially more viable-to-sane avenues, including (a) engagement with iran and syria.
the following assessment from this morning's ny times includes recent changes in relation to north korea, and so wanders just a bit from this point:



source: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/03/01/wa...hp&oref=slogin

now here's what it looks like to me:

a) absent a more elegant way of putting it, the shit is sliding toward the rotating fan blades in iraq. the present bushlogic for conducting this debacle is self-evidently as flawed as was their "evidence" for justifying this adventure in the first place---but at the same time, i can;t see a scenario in which the kind of collapse warned about in the guardian piece could possibly be construed as a good thing for the united states.

so scenario number 1: diplomatic overtures to alter the general situation are too little too late, or are not extensive enough to change fundamentally what is unfolding. what do you imagine the consequences might be of this, if this turns out to be how events unfold?

scenario number 2: the diplomatic efforts yield some fruit, and...well what?
i can't figure this one out yet--it seems to me that a wider net needs to be cast, something that would enable an internationalization of the occupation and an american roll-out---i dont see overtures to syria and iran as being big enough to enable that--so what do you see the thinking behind these moves as being?

I have never assumed that Bush or "we" held all the cards so to speak in negotiations with Iran, Syria or North Korea. In negotiations you can not "play your hand too soon", if you do you will surely loose. I think Bush had to take a hardline extreme position in order to be taken seriously. In your analysis you failed to review the reasons Iran, Syria and North Korea might be interested in joining the US in talks. Both sides on all fronts have made some extreme statements. It is our responsibility to present an opportunity for compromise and we are doing that, but at the same time they know Bush is a Craaaaaazzzzzy man who will do what he believes is right regardless of the consequences and popular opinion. As I keep saying - Bush still has his "balls". . Just like Reagan. Looks like Bush's "hail Mary pass" might work before is term ends.
__________________
"Democracy is two wolves and a sheep voting on lunch."
"It is useless for the sheep to pass resolutions on vegetarianism while the wolf is of a different opinion."
"If you live among wolves you have to act like one."
"A lady screams at the mouse but smiles at the wolf. A gentleman is a wolf who sends flowers."

aceventura3 is offline  
 

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360