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Old 02-08-2007, 04:38 PM   #27 (permalink)
kangaeru
Crazy
 
Location: on the road to where I want to be...
These are issues of incentive and perception.

Congressmen have an incentive to keep their jobs...they like their status, they like their money, and they've worked all their lives to get to where they are. Unfortunately, as the congressional elections proved, the American voters have stepped up and proven they are willing to use public elections as a referendum on Bush's Iraq policy. Elected officials must heed this if they wish to keep their jobs. Incentive.

On the other hand, those in Congress also grasp with greater clarity the true international political forces at work here. Although the issue has been whittled to the level of Bush wanting to finish Daddy's war, the true issue is far more serious, and of greater importance to every single one of us than people seem to realize.

Let me paint a picture. We pull out of Iraq, leaving it in a state of undeclared civil war. The two warring factions, the Shiites and Sunnis, each have powerful arab neighbors who will support them. A Sunni majority exists in Saudi Arabia, and a Shiite majority in Iran. On the ground in Iraq, the Sunnis are a minority, so it is more than likely that Iran would step in and take control of Iraq. At the most extreme end, they could potentially absorb Iraq and officially extend their borders and oil holdings to become one of, if not the largest heavy hitter in the middle east. There is a stronger possibility of Iran stepping in and setting up an Iran puppet regime which will bring the country back to order by martial law. Either way, Iran grows immensely both in size and percentage of world oil production....

Now, it's already very well known that Hugo Chavez and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are very buddy buddy. Venezuela is already taking an isolationist stance against the US and its allies, and is working closely with Bolivia to re-nationalize many of the industries important to their countries economic engine. An alliance between Venezuela, Bolivia, and a new Iran-Iraq allied state could present grave challenges to the United States through the price manipulation of oil. These countries are already extremely isolated (or exiled) from US trade influence, yet are domesticly strengthening their markets.

But the picture can still get much darker. This next potential step could be argued as stretching the good taste of likely probability, but I see it as very possible nonetheless. I believe China and Russia, who are currently close allies, will likely be divided on the issue. It is impossible at this point for the Chinese to walk away from US trade--they have been so ensnared by our consumption of their goods that there is no possible way for them to just join the Iran-Iraq-Bolivia-Venezuela alliance without freezing their economic progress in its tracks. Unlike the aforementioned countries, China's great natural resource is land and cheap labor, not oil. Russia on the other hand has been flexing its muscle on the international oil markets, and if given the chance to enter this new alliance, would be a perfect candidate. The state of their economies and the construction of the corrupt democracies / regimes in these countries would make their alliance in the event that Iran acquires control of Iraq, whether officially or unofficially, a logical conclusion from my perspective.

At the highest levels of government, everyone is an elitest. The Kerry's and the Bush's all have houses on Martha's Vineyard. Everyone is trying to cover their ass, but at the same time they all recognize the potential consequences of Iraq going under at this point. While the reasons for starting the war can be debated on multiple fronts, I believe our continued struggle in Iraq is of the greatest importance to all of us. It is a battle for the US to maintain it's title as the heavyweight nation of the world, and the consequences of losing that title would send shockwaves throughout our culture and economy that I doubt most people could imagine living through.
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