|
If we found a credible non-petroleum source of energy tomorrow, the Arab world would rapidly sink into a state much like most of Africa, but with one difference: it would continue to export violence, at least for a while. Eventually it would peter out. Sad but true. In the long term they'll probably wake up and try to become like Singapore or Hong Kong, or even India, but it will take a while. Right now their culture is seriously dysfunctional - too much belief in conspiracy theories, too little social infrastructure beyond religion and clans.
The situation in Iraq underscores for me the continuing validity of the Powell Doctrine: never go into a war with less than overwhelming force, and be sure to have defined objectives and a clear exit strategy or strategies. Shinseki's original war plan was the correct one: with more troops the US could have sealed the borders, prevented militias from getting arms and put down any insurgency. Our troops would mostly be home already. Iraq would be muddling through imperfectly, but in better shape than it is now. The current planned surge isn't big enough to accomplish what needs to get done and the situation now is probably much more difficult than it otherwise would have been.
|